Here’s what holiday shopping will be like without Canadians in Whatcom County in 2020
In a season devoid of Canadian cross-border shopping, Whatcom County retailers will have a challenging time getting that holiday sales boost needed to carry them in early 2021.
With border restrictions expected to remain in place at least through the rest of the year during the COVID-19 pandemic, not having the Canadian traffic will take a bite out of retail sales in Whatcom County. It’s unclear what the dollar amount will be, but traffic volumes into Whatcom County typically rise about 8% between November and December.
“So there is definitely an uptick, and given what we know about trip purposes, shopping and mail pick-up likely plays a big role in that,” said Laurie Trautman, director at the Border Policy Research Institute at Western Washington University.
What stores will be impacted the most by no cross-border shopping this year? It’s hard to say, but it could be the high-value big-box discount stores seen along Meridian Street, said Guy Occhiogrosso, president/CEO of the Bellingham Regional Chamber of Commerce. However, sales could recover if local residents, seeing fewer crowds, pick up the slack.
It’s not all doom-and-gloom heading into the holiday shopping season. Job numbers are one barometer of optimism/confidence, and there are pockets of strength in the local retail industry, said Anneliese Vance-Sherman, a regional labor economist for the state.
Those pockets of strength job-wise include building supply/garden businesses, grocery stores, big-box stores and online shopping. Retail areas that are struggling through the pandemic on a jobs front include clothing and furniture stores, Vance-Sherman said.
The strength in local retail can be seen in tax revenue, which has been “not horrible” so far this year, Occhiogrosso said. The federal government stimulus packages earlier this year certainly helped, but it is unclear what that will mean for the holiday shopping season if no other stimulus package is passed in the coming weeks.
One strategy that’s become clear is that retailers are pushing for an earlier start to the holiday shopping season, said James McCafferty, co-director at the Center for Economic and Business Research at Western Washington University. He’s noticed that U.S. warehouse space is at a premium right now because many companies ordered early for fear delivery would be delayed.
“The inventory is here and needs to be sold,” McCafferty said in an email, adding that so far this is one of the areas that has seen growth during this COVID-19 pandemic.
Whatcom retailers can also build strong sales if they come out with a strong “buy local” message and if they can pivot to online and curbside pickup options.
“I am expecting to see good sales, but not great sales, unless inventories stay high,” McCafferty said. “By starting earlier the gamble by retailers is that they can sell more at a higher price by stretching it out. It may work, it may not.”
Generally Whatcom County retailers count on a strong fourth quarter to help them get through what is normally a very slow first three months of the new year. The first quarter could be even slower if the pandemic worsens during the winter months and more restrictions are put in place.
If sales are lower than expected, there will be pressure to close more retail store locations in early 2021, McCafferty said.
“This is a time for all businesses to get serious about defining their niche and connecting with consumers in meaningful ways. If they don’t, it will be a much harder road to staying afloat into mid-next year when things should start to get a lot better,” McCafferty said.
Adjustments are key
Like everyone else during the pandemic, adjusting to restrictions is important for retailers heading into the holidays. Fairhaven recently announced key changes to its Winterfest schedule, which include a socially distant Santa and events that abide by the Phase 2 restrictions currently in place.
Bellis Fair is also making some adjustments for the holidays. Santa Claus will be available for photos, but in a contact-free format. There will also be a virtual experience option, said General Manager Austin Israelsky. The virtual experience will include stories read by Mrs. Claus and a visit to the North Pole. Reservations can be made on the Bellis Fair website.
The mall has also enhanced its curbside pickup program, with labeled parking spaces. Most of the stores are open, although some are still doing pickup just outside the store. Hours for Black Friday/Thanksgiving hours had not be set for the mall, Israelsky said.
The Thanksgiving and Black Friday sales, which have declined as an event in recent years, seems to be an afterthought this year. Several retails that have opened on Thanksgiving Day in recent years will wait until Black Friday, including Macy’s, JC Penney, Kohl’s and Best Buy.
For consumers, Black Friday is basically just another day in the holiday season. Several national surveys indicate that most Americans have already started, or plan to start holiday shopping before Thanksgiving. One recent survey done by Savanta found 58% will have started shopping before Thanksgiving.
“We are definitely in that shopping season right now,” said Occhiogrosso, noting that with the travel restrictions people have more time to shop, whether it’s local or online. That shopping is also expected to increase now that national elections are over.
Along with stressing a buy-local approach to the holiday season, Occhiogrosso said it’s also important to think about the Whatcom County nonprofit organizations. This is normally the time of year for gala events, dinners, auctions that raise money for a wide range of causes. Those aren’t happening this year, or are being done on a smaller scale online, so many of these groups will be struggling going into 2021.
This story was originally published November 8, 2020 at 7:00 AM.
