How long could it take for Whatcom to vaccinate everyone 16 and older from COVID-19?
Rough estimates by The Bellingham Herald show that though Gov. Jay Inslee announced Wednesday that he is opening COVID-19 vaccination to all adults in the state 16 and older, it could take Whatcom County until at least July to get everybody who is eligible vaccinated.
It could take even longer — maybe even mid-September — depending on the supply of vaccine Whatcom County receives.
The governor announced the shift in the state’s timeline at a virtual press conference Wednesday afternoon. Previously, he had suggested it was unlikely the state would open up eligibility to all adults substantially ahead of the May 1 deadline set by President Joe Biden.
“We are confident we can take this step because our dosage allocations have increased, and we’ve now had roughly 3.3 million doses that have been administered in our state and more than 1 million Washingtonians are fully vaccinated,” Inslee said.
The federal government has said vaccine allocations will continue to increase, Inslee said, both through the state and through its own channels, such as the Federal Retail Pharmacy Program.
Inslee also referenced a recent increase in COVID-19 cases as a reason for opening up vaccination to more people.
After a drop in case rates in the beginning of 2021, rates plateaued but have recently started climbing in many areas, state Department of Health data show. Earlier this month, state and local health officials expressed concerns about a possible fourth wave of the virus, even as vaccines are being administered, because of COVID-19 variants.
But what does the Governor’s announcement mean in Whatcom County?
“When it comes to the logistics of getting shots in arms, the network of healthcare providers, pharmacies, and other vaccine providers in our county, is well prepared to handle the greater number of eligible people,” Whatcom County Health Department Health Information and Assessment Supervisor Amy Hockenberry told The Herald in an email. “We now have 50 enrolled provider sites in Whatcom County, and have a number of partners able to provide mobile or onsite vaccines as well.“
Shots in arms
The Whatcom County Health Department told The Herald it estimates there are just under 186,000 Whatcom County residents (185,969) who are 16 and older.
As of Wednesday, March 31, when people in Phase 1B-3 and 1B-4 became eligible to receive the vaccine, the health department told The Herald in an email that an estimated 122,000 Whatcom County residents were eligible under Phase 1A and the four tiers of Phase 1B. That means that by April 15, approximately 64,000 more Whatcom County residents will become eligible.
In the latest Washington State Department of Health vaccination report released Wednesday, the state reported 38,692 Whatcom County residents have been fully vaccinated as of Monday, March 29. Another 29,700 residents had initiated a COVID vaccination, but still needed to receive another dose to be fully vaccinated.
Using those numbers and not factoring that only one dose of the Johnson & Johnson vaccine is required to be fully vaccinated, that means Whatcom County needs approximately 264,916 more doses of vaccine to be administered to fully vaccinate the estimated 186,000 people in the county 16 and older.
Earlier this month, Whatcom County Health Department Director Erika Lautenbach estimated that the county’s providers were set up to administer vaccine to approximately 9% of the county’s population per week.
“We easily have capacity to run 20,000 vaccine doses per week, and we’re just waiting on the product,” Lautenbach told The Herald. “This is a short-term problem. It really is. It’s going to be a few more weeks. … Once people are vaccinated and more people are vaccinated this will be a thing of the past.“
Of the estimated 20,000 doses, Lautenbach said the county’s mass vaccination site at Bellingham Technical College could administer approximately 5,000 per week, PeaceHealth could distribute roughly 6,000 and Family Care Network could give about 2,700.
Hockenberry said 20,000 is still an accurate weekly maximum, though she added it doesn’t include chain pharmacies, “so the actual potential weekly administration rate is likely higher.”
Based on 20,000 doses administered per week, it would take Whatcom County 13.2 weeks to administer 264,916 doses and fully vaccinate all 186,000 residents 16 and older.
Thirteen weeks from April 1 is July 1.
In reality, though, Whatcom County isn’t averaging administering 20,000 doses per week because the county has not received the supply to do so. During the month of March, Whatcom County administered 50,264 doses, which breaks down to 1,621.4 doses administered per day and 11,349.9 per week.
At that rate, it would take Whatcom County 23.3 weeks to vaccinate everybody 16 and older, or until mid-September.
“The root problem remains the same, unfortunately, and that’s vaccine supply,” Hockenberry said. “While allocations to Whatcom providers have increased and are holding steady at the moment, it’s still not enough to make up for the thousands of people who’ve become newly eligible recently, let alone the many more who will be eligible in two weeks.”
Obviously, not everybody who is eligible has or will want to receive the vaccine, and that will impact how long it takes to actually vaccinate everybody who wants the vaccine. More people being vaccinated by the single-dose Johnson & Johnson vaccine also could significantly impact how long it takes to vaccinate all those that want the vaccine.
Ramping up
Whatcom County vaccine providers are ramping up to get ready for the thousands of residents who have recently been added or soon will be to the list of eligible potential vaccine recipients, Hockenberry said.
One area they have focused on, she said, is streamlining operations to administer second doses in a way that doesn’t slow down the ability to give first doses.
“When we talk about how many doses can be given in a week, we aren’t differentiating between first and second doses,” Hockenberry said. “So if we want to accelerate our progress in getting folks vaccinated to keep pace with the number of people who are eligible, it might mean adding resources like staff and space so that we can maximize the number of people who get those first doses.
“So far it’s been a delicate dance for providers to scale up their vaccination efforts when there aren’t enough doses, but we know they have the ability to ramp up, and quickly. There will be some decisions to make in the next weeks about how we all scale up, while being realistic about whether or not we see a concurrent rise in supply.”
Hockenberry also advised anybody who is already eligible and wants to be vaccinated but hasn’t yet done so to take advantage of this opportunity before approximately 64,000 more Whatcom County residents become eligible.
“If you’re in a priority phase, make an appointment now if you haven’t already,” she said. “People who were prioritized early were prioritized for a reason — because the COVID-19 vaccine is essential for their health and safety. Once everyone’s eligible, it will be harder to get an appointment until vaccine supply catches up with the increased demand.”
This story was originally published April 1, 2021 at 10:59 AM.
