Early El Niño promises a hot summer for Whatcom County, terrible WA fire season
Summer looks to be starting a month early in Whatcom County, thanks in part to an El Niño weather pattern that’s beginning to strengthen several months earlier than usual, meaning that Western Washington could be looking at heat spikes and periods of wildfire smoke.
This summer in the Northwest — already the warmest and driest time of the year — is expected bring above-normal temperatures and below-normal rainfall, according to the Climate Prediction Center’s forecast for the months of June, July and August. Climate scientists call that period “meteorological summer” because it differs from astronomical summer, which is based on the solstice and starts June 21.
According to forecasts released May 21, the Climate Prediction Center said there’s a 60% to 70% chance of above-normal temperatures and a 40% to 50% chance of below-normal rainfall from June through August.
That forecast is based on current climate data and 30-year seasonal averages, National Weather Service meteorologist Jeff Michalski told The Bellingham Herald.
“There are higher odds that we will lean toward those warmer (summers),” he said in a phone call from the weather service’s Seattle office.
Warmer-than-normal temperatures are forecast through June as a strong El Niño weather pattern continues to build, upending the traditional “Juneuary” of cold and rainy days. El Niño years typically mean warmer and drier winters for the Northwest, and it’s rare for an El Niño pattern to start before fall.
High pressure that’s building this weekend is expected to bring daytime highs in the upper 70s and low 80s, temperatures that are 10 to 15 degrees above normal May-June highs in the mid- to upper 60s.
Warmer temperatures also could affect the west winds that give the area its sunny and mild summer weather. Should the prevailing “westerlies” reverse course, winds would blow from the east and bring hot, dry wind instead.
That could also mean more wildfires on the west side of the Cascades, because much of the region is already in a drought.
“That’s still a major concern. We could be seeing an early start to the (fire) season,” Michalski said.
