El Niño could start earlier than thought. What to expect in Whatcom County
Chances of an El Niño weather pattern forming this year jumped sharply with the release of a new report Thursday, meaning Bellingham and the rest of Western Washington could be looking at a warmer winter than normal with less rain and snow.
Scientists at the National Weather Service Climate Prediction Center said there is an 82% chance of El Niño conditions emerging by July, according to the most recent online El Niño/Southern Oscillation Diagnostic Discussion. That’s up from a 61% chance last month.
“While confidence in the occurrence of El Niño has increased since last month, there is still substantial uncertainty in the peak strength of El Niño, with no strength categorization exceeding a 37% chance,” the report said. “The strongest El Niño events in the historical record are characterized by significant ocean-atmosphere coupling through the summer, and it remains to be seen whether this occurs in 2026. Stronger El Niño events do not ensure strong impacts; they can only make certain impacts more likely.”
El Niño is the warming of Pacific Ocean surface temperatures west of equatorial South America, part of a cyclical climate pattern that influences weather conditions across the globe. Its sister, La Niña, happens when ocean surface temperatures are cooler.
For the Northwest, El Niño generally means a warmer and drier fall and winter than average because powerful storms are sent south toward California. La Niña often results in a cooler and wetter season, with more of those storms heading north.
That could spell trouble for the Northwest, which is continuing to experience drought conditions as forecasts call for an active summer wildfire season. April rainfall was a little more than half of normal in Bellingham, and May has been abnormally dry so far.
While this week’s report seems to lend credibility to recent media hype about a looming “super” El Niño, meteorologists at the Washington State Climate Office cringe at that description.
Assistant State Climatologist Karin Bumbaco told The Bellingham Herald that El Niño refers to seasonal averages, not individual weather events.
“We feel pretty confident that there will be an El Niño developing later this summer,” Bumbaco said. “It’s not telling us this early in the season whether it will be weak or strong. It doesn’t mean that we’re going to have the driest winter ever. It doesn’t mean that it won’t snow (in the lowlands). It doesn’t mean that there won’t be individual weather events.”
