Whatcom jobs, families depend on an open U.S.-Canada border. Here’s the summer outlook
Fully reopening the U.S.-Canadian border is going to take time, and it will be even longer before cross-border shopping and visits recover.
That’s one of the assessments made by a group of panelists during a Western Washington University presentation held via Zoom on Friday, June 19. Three experts talked about the future of the border in the presentation, which was moderated by Laurie Trautman, director at Western’s Border Policy Research Institute.
A significant part of the hour-long presentation involved the current situation at Whatcom County’s border, its impact on the economy and what the future might hold. Currently, the number of people crossing the border is down 98%, while commercial traffic is down 20%, said Trautman, noting that the drop in commercial traffic was being caused by factors other than the border restrictions, such as supply chain issues and less demand.
The panelists generally took a big-picture approach to answering questions, stressing how uncertainty and risk assessment during this pandemic will play a large role in what happens next. One big issue is how residents on both sides of the border view this pandemic: British Columbia has kept its number of new cases very low when compared to Washington state.
The entire province of British Columbia had eight confirmed new cases on Thursday, June 18; that was fewer than the 10 Whatcom County had that day. Washington state had 408 new cases on June 18.
“My big concern is the deep erosion of trust that’s going on, and will get worse if this is prolonged,” said Edward Alden, a Ross Distinguished Visiting Professor at Western and a senior fellow at the Council on Foreign Relations in Washington, D.C. ”There is a strong message coming from British Columbia that they want Americans to keep out, which is understandable given the much higher incidence of COVID-19 in Washington state. The huge demand for reunions at Peace Arch Park, which led to its closing, is evidence of the personal toll this is taking on many cross-border families and friends. If this goes on a long time, there is going to be resentment on both sides that will take time to repair.”
Summer visits in doubt
With restrictions happening on March 21, the border between the U.S. and Canada remains closed to nonessential travel until Tuesday, July 21. The consensus expectation among the panelists is that there could be a few modifications to ease some of the restrictions after the July 21 deadline. However, they don’t expect the border to fully reopen this summer.
One possible scenario is a series of minor changes after July 21, then see what things look like in the fall before making further decisions, said Anneliese Vance-Sherman, a regional labor economist for the state. She said the status of schools and businesses at that time will be key factors in what happens next at the border.
Robert Kerr, consul Political, Economic and Public Affairs with the Consulate General of Canada in Seattle, said he could see a situation where they start with modifications before a complete reopening, but that the Canadian government is still monitoring and taking in recommendations. Given the rise in U.S. cases, Kerr said he expects Canadians to lean toward a conservative approach to reopening.
The longer the border remains restricted, the risk increases that the strong connection between Whatcom County and British Columbia will weaken, Vance-Sherman said. The local jobs already hit the hardest by the border restrictions are retail, restaurants, leisure and lodging, industries that were already changing before the pandemic arrived with automation and online shopping.
If there is a silver lining in this, it’s that being a border community has trained Whatcom to adapt to change, Vance-Sherman said. Through the years Whatcom County has dealt with a strong and weak Canadian dollar as well as the border being restricted for a few days following the Sept. 11 terrorist attacks. While that pales in comparison to this current border situation, those events at least provided some lessons that can be used now.
“Our big vulnerability right now is that this is much steeper,” Vance-Sherman said, noting this will continue to result in business closures.
When we reach a point where the border is open without restrictions, there will continue to be the issue of perceived safety, particularly if the virus is not eradicated. It could lead to a number of changes at the border crossings, such as temperature checks and “touchless” procedures where an app or other technology is used to verify travelers.
Risk management will become a factor for travelers, Trautman said. Is it worth it for Canadians to travel to the Bellingham Costco for milk, or to visit Mt. Baker? Price and border wait times used to be the driving factors, but now safety will become one as well.
Previous Western Insight series presentations via Zoom are available on Western’s website.
