When will U.S.-Canada border reopen? Canadians say Tuesday’s election will play a role
While British Colombians reportedly are betting on Tuesday’s U.S. Presidential election in record numbers, the actual outcome could make a huge impact on how soon the border between the two countries is reopened, one Canadian expert says.
The B.C. Lottery Corporation estimates that approximately 10,000 people British Columbia residents will bet on the U.S. election, which would make it the largest-ever betting event the website has ever seen, according to a CTV story last week.
Most B.C. bettors (44%) think Republican incumbent Donald Trump will win, while 27% have put their money on Democratic challenger Joe Biden — the other 29% has gone to non-candidates, including vice presidential nominees Kamala Harris and Mike Pence, according to the story.
If Canadians are right and Trump wins, one B.C. analyst says that could mean the border could remain closed due to COVID-19 longer, according to a story Sunday by the Vancouver Sun. Jock Finlayson of the Business Council of B.C. told the Sun that B.C.’s tourism industry has been decimated and the border closure remains “one of the biggest headwinds we’re fighting on economic recovery.” The two countries closed the border to non-essential travel on March 21 in an effort to slow the coronavirus spread.
“The sooner the U.S. gets control of the pandemic, the sooner the border can reopen,” Finlayson told the Sun. “And I’m suggesting that the likelihood of getting control of the pandemic would be under a Biden administration.”
In Finlayson’s view, according to the Sun story, Trump is “sort of giving up (on COVID-19) and, you know, betting all their chips on a vaccine.”
Globe News also broke down how each candidate’s proposed COVID policies could impact when the border reopens, with Biden’s wanting to ramp up testing, promote mask wearing and social distancing and relying on science to say when a vaccine is ready and Trump stating that we are already “rounding the turn” on the pandemic and that a vaccine should be available by January, according to the story.
When will it open?
Regardless of who wins Tuesday’s election, Canada’s Ambassador to the U.S. told CTV that there is “no justification” for opening the border before the end of the year.
“The way we’re seeing the virus progress — at this time there’s no justification for changing in any significant way the measures that are in place,” Ambassador Kirsten Hillman told CTV’s Power Play.
The border closure has been extended on a month-by-month basis seven times and is now scheduled to expire Nov. 21. Hillman told CTV she doesn’t believe either country is ready to allow non-essential travel before the end out of the year.
“The facts on the ground with respect to the virus will dictate our choices and the facts right now argue for maintaining the measures as they are,” Hillman said, adding that both countries are pleased that the border closure is doing what it supposed to do — limit the spread of COVID.
Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau says a decision over when to reopen the border will be made by Canadians, according to a Narcity story.
“We will continue to put the protection of Canadians first and foremost,” Trudeau told Mark Critch during his show “This Hour Has 22 Minutes” last month, Narcity reported. “That border is continuing to stay closed for another month.”
Trudeau has previously said he has no plans to reopen the border while the U.S. continues to struggle with COVID.
Point Roberts left out
The Canadian government announced that it began allowing limited Canada-U.S. border crossing on Saturday, Oct. 31, to residents of Campobello Island, New Brunswick; Stewart, B.C.; Northwest Angle, Minnesota; and Hyder, Alaska, without the mandatory 14-day quarantine. The move was made so residents of those isolated cities could cross the border to access necessities, such as food or medical services, according to a Canadian release on the move.
“Canadians have made sacrifices to respond to this new virus, and our government will continue to rely on evidence and data to protect them,” Canadian Minister of Heath Patty Hajdu said in the release. “The changes confirmed today will help those in remote and cross-border communities while still protecting Canadians from the public health risk posed by COVID-19.”
One town that was omitted from those new, relaxed provisions is Whatcom County’s Point Roberts, an enclave that sits just below the 49th parallel on the Tsawwassen peninsula and is separated from the rest of the county.
“I’m stunned and outraged,” Point Roberts Chamber of Commerce president Brian Calder told the Delta Optimist. “We support and applaud the other exclaves along the 49th parallel getting that relaxation of the lockdown rules. We think that’s sensible and it recognizes the extreme hardships being thrust upon them the last eight months and it could be another eight. Who knows!
“What about Point Roberts? We are the only ones left off the list in all of North America. Why has no one from either side of the government been here?”
Approximately 1,300 Point Roberts residents cannot travel to the rest of Whatcom County without entering British Columbia, driving approximately 26 miles around Boundary Bay and re-entering the United States in Blaine at the Peace Arch Border Crossing.
The Port of Bellingham has offered free passenger ferry service from Point Roberts since Aug. 15 to help residents with medical appointments in Whatcom County. The ferry now goes to Bellingham’s Fairhaven terminal twice a week.
Many politicians have previously asked for the two countries to work together to find a solution for Point Robert’s isolation during the pandemic.
Calder told Globe News that business is down 85% in the community because approximately 75% of residents are Canadians who can’t cross into Point Roberts.
According to the Delta Optimist, the Point Roberts Marina has seen the number of boats dwindle from 650 to 200, with Canadian owners getting them delivered across the border, and a Banner Bank branch in the Market Place grocery store will close permanently next month, leaving only one financial institution in Point Roberts.
Closure impact
Statistics Canada predicts that Canada’s border closure and travel restrictions could lead to the loss of between 400,000 and 500,000 jobs, according to a Baystreet story.
The statistics agency also says that the limited travel has hindered Canada’s economic recovery and will reduce its economic output this year by 1.7% or approximately $37.1 billion, Baystreet reported.
A story by the Buffalo News says that stores and hotels in the Niagra Falls region are bracing for a holiday season without Canadian shoppers, who usually help them through the lean parts of the year when tourism slows.
“It’s definitely hurting both sides of the border,” Merani Hotel Group Vice President of Operations Michael Marsh told the Buffalo News. “It might not impact the center of Canada or the center of the United States, but for border areas, it’s definitely having a negative impact.”
Last year, Canadians spent $59 million in Niagara County on Visa cards alone, the Buffalo News reported, with heaviest spending in a typical year around the holidays.
There was even a post by a Canadian made in the r/Bellingham Reddit community last week asking if Bellingham was better off “without all of us Canadians stealing the milk?”
While some of the 63 responses seized on the opportunity to take shots about Costco, Trader Joe’s and Interstate 5 being emptier and more enjoyable, some admitted to missing Canadian visitors.
B.C. update
Unfortunately, the numbers on both sides of the border do not signal a reopening coming anytime soon, even once Nov. 21 rolls around.
As of Monday afternoon, the United States had the most coronavirus cases in the world during the pandemic with more than 9.2 million confirmed cases and 231,000 related deaths, according to the John Hopkins University COVID-19 dashboard.
Canada, meanwhile, was 30th overall with almost 242,000 cases and more than 10,000 deaths.
According to the British Columbia COVID-19 dashboard, the province has seen 14,381 total cases during the pandemic and 272 confirmed deaths as of Friday, Oct. 30 — an increase of 3,192 cases and 21 deaths since Oct. 19. It also shows that the number of daily cases has dramatically increased since mid-August and the total number of active cases in the province is 2,390 — an increase of 877 cases since Oct. 19.
More than half of the total cases in the province (8,219) are in the Frasier Health Authority, which borders Whatcom County. The Vancouver Coastal Health Authority accounts for 4,664 cases.
With a population of approximately 5.1 million, British Columbia is averaging 282.0 cases and 5.3 related deaths per 100,000 residents over the course of the pandemic.
For comparison, the Washington State Department of Health reported 107,501 confirmed cases and 2,366 related deaths on Friday — an increase of 9,300 cases and 12 deaths since Oct. 19. With a population of approximately 7.5 million, the state is averaging 1,433.3 cases and 31.5 deaths per 100,000.
Economic impact
Whatcom County is certainly feeling the economic impact of the border closure, which now prepares to enter its eighth month.
The Western Washington University Border Policy Research Institute has found that Canadians comprise approximately 75% of cross-border travelers to and from Whatcom County, depending on the exchange rate when the border is open, according to information Director Laurie Trautman emailed to The Bellingham Herald for an earlier story.
In 2018, that would have represented approximately 10.5 million southbound Canadian travelers through the Blaine, Lynden, Sumas and Point Roberts points of entry.
Those Canadians represent a large portion of consumers in Whatcom County — anywhere from 2% to 46% of the weekend customer base Whatcom County retailers see, Trautman reported, adding that the average is about 17%.
Essential travel between the two countries is still allowed, though, and that includes transportation of freight.
According to U.S. Bureau of Transportation Statistics published Sept. 23, $91 billion in trans-border freight was transported between the U.S. borders with Canada and Mexico in July — that was up 10.9% from June and 62.2% from May 2020, but still down 11.2% from July 2019.
