Here’s why Whatcom’s fall job outlook is tepid for women and people of color
With back-to-school being a mostly online affair to start, the traditional Whatcom back-to-work surge seems less likely to happen this fall, with employment for women and people of color being especially hard hit.
September and October typically have the lowest unemployment rates of the year in Whatcom County, but that probably won’t be the case in 2020. The early-COVID-19 February-early March unemployment rate was around 5%; by July Whatcom’s rate was 11.8%, up from 10.3% in June, according to Washington’s Employment Security Department.
One reason the unemployment rate usually hits its lowest levels in September and October is that schools are back in session. It happens at a time when retail sales are also peaking for the year with back-to-school shopping and a run-up to the holiday season.
While teachers and professors are coming back to teach online classes, others may not return because of the COVID-19 pandemic. Retail stores and restaurants are also keeping staff numbers low as businesses adapt to the current Phase 2 restrictions in the state’s “Safe Start” program.
Add to that the parents who choose to stay home to help their children with school and it is expected to mean lower job participation rates, said Anneliese Vance-Sherman, a regional labor economist for the state. It will also mean fewer women in the workforce.
“I expect that this will be gendered in nature, with moms more likely to stay home with kids than dads, because there is greater social acceptance for women to pause their careers for care-related activities,” Vance-Sherman said in an email. “And because some of the industries that were affected the most (such as leisure and hospitality) are also characterized by female-dominated workforces.”
In Whatcom County women represented 56.7% of the lodging and food service sector jobs in 2018, according to data from the state’s Employment Security Department. Other industries that are dominated by women locally include finance/insurance (women represent 69.3% of that workforce) and education (68.5%).
Another hard-hit sector during the COVID-19 pandemic is the local health care industry, of which women represent 79.2% of the Whatcom workforce. While there is a need for nurses and doctors during a pandemic, other areas of health care have been disrupted with furloughs and layoffs, such as chiropractors, dentists and those who work in social assistance programs.
Regional data indicates people of color are also more likely to be impacted with job losses, as they are less likely to have jobs that allow them to work from home, said Hart Hodges, co-director at the Center for Economic and Business Research at Western Washington University.
“We know this recession is unique in the fact that it is hitting women harder than men. The industry sectors hit hardest by the pandemic and closures have majority female employment and in many cases also have large numbers of minority employees,” Hodges said in an email.
Student impact on job participation
Faced with the difficult choice of a paycheck or helping children with online classes, those who choose to help their children will result in a lower job participation rate. Whatcom’s job participation rates have trended slightly lower in recent years, according to data from the state’s Employment Security Department. In 2017 Whatcom’s job participation rate was at 63%; six years earlier it was nearly 66%.
The overall unemployment rate in Whatcom County could tick down from the July numbers, because business activity tends to pick up following the summer months, Hodges said. It will be a slow decrease, however, and wouldn’t reflect the number of parents who chose to quit to help their children with school and are not actively looking for work.
“We do not expect the labor market to return to what it was pre-COVID until 2022. Businesses will be hesitant to hire and/or will be very mindful of costs for a while due to the risk of surges in the virus,” Hodges said. “But mostly, it will take that long for a vaccine to be widely available/used and for people to be comfortable doing everything again.”
Another trend that’s expected to continue is the reduced number of hours employees work, said James McCafferty, co-director at Western’s economic research center. Businesses continue to adapt during a pandemic, and that includes figuring out how much staffing they need. That will make it harder to get accurate counts on employment data and negatively impact spending.
“If I go from full-time to part-time but still want full-time, I won’t show up in the unemployment data,” McCafferty said.
