Where are the Whatcom workers? Data suggests one thing is holding them back
As the Whatcom County labor market tries to get back on track, it appears a lack of affordable childcare options continues to hold many people back.
The most recent data from the Washington State Employment Security Department shows Whatcom County has a low unemployment rate, but also a low percentage of job participation. While the local unemployment rate hovered at 4.3% in September and October, Whatcom County had 3,100 fewer non-farm jobs in October than it did in the pre-pandemic days of October 2019.
The local industry sectors with the biggest declines in jobs between October 2019 and October 2021 are manufacturing (down 1,400 jobs) and leisure/hospitality (down 1,200). The data indicates that the age group that has had the biggest drop off in the overall workforce is in the 25-34 age group, while the manufacturing sector also saw a big decline among workers not close to retirement age.
“I think the evidence does point to a severe constraint around child care,” said Anneliese Vance-Sherman, a regional labor economist for the state, in an email.
Childcare challenges
Finding reliable child care services was difficult to find before the pandemic. A 2018 article in The Bellingham Herald found that some places had waitlists that were two years long. The situation has only worsened following the arrival of COVID-19, first with a period of remote learning for children in school but also in dealing with unpredictable outbreaks.
That has made some parents wary of returning to the workforce.
“If a child has any symptoms, they are sent home from school and may be required to provide a negative COVID-19 test before they can return to school. This could take a caregiver out of the workforce for a week or two without any notice,” Vance-Sherman said, adding that overall that should become less of an issue now that more children have access to the vaccine. According to the Washington State Department of Health, more than 117,000 children ages 5-11 were vaccinated statewide in the first month of being eligible.
Also, the daycare industry has suffered job losses as well, reducing options for parents. Looking at slightly older data in order to zero in on daycare-specific jobs, Vance-Sherman found that statewide daycare jobs dropped 29% between February 2020 and May 2020. That was during the most restrictive time of the pandemic in terms of economic shutdowns, but given the job shortages that followed and the low wages offered in the industry, it is unlikely to have recovered to pre-pandemic levels.
“In other words, the child care industry faces its own unique set of challenges in getting back to normal, but the health of the child care industry is also necessary to make employees available to all other industries,” Sherman said.
Intalco also a factor
One big reason for fewer manufacturing jobs in Whatcom County was the closure of the Intalco Works aluminum smelter near Ferndale in the summer of 2020, eliminating around 700 jobs.
Even with a labor force that size becoming available, there is still a tremendous need for workers in construction, manufacturing and assembly, said Don Goldberg, director of economic development for the Port of Bellingham. Along with childcare, he said a lack of housing, vaccine mandates, job burnout and COVID-19 are all impacting these numbers.
Before the pandemic, manufacturing jobs were on a roll in Whatcom County. So far this century, the peak months were in July and August 2019, when Whatcom County had 10,900 manufacturing jobs, according to Employment Security Department data. With 9,200 manufacturing jobs in October 2021, it’s a level similar to January 2000, a time when Georgia-Pacific had its pulp and tissue operations in downtown Bellingham.
