Whatcom jobless rate remains low, but the government shutdown could put that at risk

Whatcom County’s unemployment data didn’t show anything unexpected to finish off 2018, but the federal government shutdown may change that if it continues for an extended period.

The unemployment rate in Whatcom County was estimated to be 5 percent in December, up from 4.6 percent in November. That’s according to the Washington State Employment Security Department.

Whatcom’s unemployment rate typically rises at the end of the year as the holiday shopping season ends and retailers reduce staffing. The 5 percent mark last month matches the December 2017 unemployment rate.

What’s not factored into last month’s unemployment numbers is the workers impacted by the federal government shutdown that started Dec. 22. Furloughed workers who will be paid once funding is available are being included as employed, said Jeff Robinson, an economist for Washington state’s Employment Security Department.

Robinson said in an email to The Bellingham Herald that the agency estimates 75 percent of the federal employees in Whatcom County are either furloughed or working without pay. That’s about 1,200 federal workers directly impacted locally, according to the state’s data.

So far, the government shutdown is having a minor impact on the local economy, Robinson said, adding that it could start to have a bigger impact if it continues and starts to damage business or consumer confidence.

“In addition to the direct drag to government consumption, we could see indirect effects from a temporary slowdown in consumption due to weaker spending from furloughed workers,” Robinson said.

Decreases in Whatcom job numbers were relatively minor between November and December. The retail industry shed a total of 100 people in one month, while manufacturing was also down 100 people. Employment levels in several industries like construction and hospitality remained unchanged between November and December.

Whatcom’s unemployment rate is among the lowest in the state. The lowest rate remains in King County, at 3.3 percent, while Snohomish County came in at 3.6 percent. Skagit’s unemployment rate was 5.7 percent last month.