Where FAU ranks among the Final Four’s all-time Cinderellas (and why it’s not really one)
The Florida Atlantic Owls don’t consider themselves a Cinderella — and in a lot ways they’re right.
This is a 35-win team and a conference champion. Florida Atlantic spent time ranked in the Top 25 this season and has a chance to be only the second 37-win national champion ever. The Owls rolled through Conference USA — and the league’s next two best teams are now playing in the National Invitational Tournament championship Thursday — and even beat Florida in Gainesville at the start of the year.
Still, No. 9 seed Florida Atlantic is in decidedly underdog territory at the Final Four, even if barely anyone doubts the Owls can now win. Only eight teams seeded ninth or lower have ever made it this far in the NCAA Tournament, and even three of those came from the so-called Power 5 conferences — UCLA as a No. 11 seed in 2021, Syracuse as a No. 10 seed in 2016 and LSU as a No. 11 seed, and the first ever double-digit seed to make the Final Four, in 1986.
How does Florida Atlantic compare to the rest? The Owls (35-3) might just be the best out-of-nowhere semifinalist ever, mostly because they didn’t really come out of nowhere.
2023: No. 9 seed Florida Atlantic
▪ Poll history: Florida Atlantic peaked at No. 19 and even went into the Tournament at No. 25.
▪ What Kenpom says: The Owls enter the Final Four as the No. 17 team in Ken Pomeroy’s rankings. If they finish there, it will be tied for the best ranking by any of these five Cinderellas. Florida Atlantic is balanced, too, with the No. 24 offense and No. 30 defense. The defensive number is important: Every champion since 2002, which is as far back as Pomeroy’s rankings go, has had a top-40 defense.
▪ The context: The Owls’ Cinderella status is really tied up in the history of the program. Florida Atlantic had only even been to one other NCAA Tourney before this year and was one-and-done, way back in 2002. The Owls are also in the midst of only their 10th winning season ever — the program goes back to 1993 — and only their second 20-season. They even had a losing record for six straight seasons before they hired coach Dusty May in 2018.
2018: No. 11 seed Loyola (Illinois)
▪ Poll history: Loyola wasn’t ranked at any point during the 2017-18 college basketball season.
▪ What Kenpom.com says: The Ramblers finished the year as the No. 31 team in Pomeroy’s rankings, with the No. 63 offense and No. 17 defense.
▪ The context: Loyola’s run is mostly remembered for the presence of Sister Jean, as the nun, then 98, was an ever-present fixture on the Ramblers’ sidelines to cheer on the school at which she had worked since 1991. Loyola also, of course, began its run by upsetting Miami in the first round of the tournament, then made it all the way to the Final Four before getting blown out by Michigan. Although seeded lower, the Ramblers weren’t quite as unlikely as Florida Atlantic, though: It was Loyola’s fourth trip to at least the second weekend of the tournament and the Ramblers even won the national title back in 1963. It did, however, spark a nice run for Loyola, which made the Sweet 16 again in 2021 before then-Ramblers coach Porter Moser left for Oklahoma.
2013: No. 9 seed Wichita State
▪ Poll history: Wichita State peaked as high as No. 15 and also spent much of the previous season ranked.
▪ What Kenpom.com says: The Shockers finished the year at No. 17, with the No. 35 offense and No. 20 defense.
▪ The context: Wichita State is the closest analog to the Owls, as evidenced by their identical seeds and overall Kenpom rankings. These were both teams with rock-solid resume, only stuck in the No. 9 seed because they came from conferences perceived to be relatively weak. From here, the Shockers turned into something of a power, going undefeated in the regular season the next year to earn a No. 1 seed and spending time ranked in each of the next six years, reaching another Sweet 16 in 2015. Wichita State did lose in the Final Four in 2013, though.
2011: No. 11 seed VCU
▪ Poll history: VCU was never ranked that season.
▪ What Kenpom.com says: The Rams were probably the biggest underdog to ever make it to the Final Four, given their No. 53 ranking in Kenpom, with just the No. 47 offense and No. 78 defense.
▪ The context: This was the first year the Tournament expanded to 68 teams, and VCU was one of the final teams in the field, starting in the First Four and making it all the way to the Final Four before losing. Although this is the their only time getting out of the first weekend of the Tournament, the Rams are a fixture in March Madness, making it 18 times, including eight times before this run. They did, however, parlay it into a nice run before then-VCU coach Shaka Smart left for Texas in 2014, spending time ranked in the final three seasons before his departure.
2006: No. 11 seed George Mason
▪ Poll history: Not only was George Mason not ranked at any point this season, the Patriots have never been ranked.
▪ What Kenpom.com says: George Mason ended the year at No. 22 in Kenpom’s rankings, No. 66 in offense and No. 13 in defense.
▪ The context: This is the original Cinderella, coincidentally coached by Hurricanes coach Jim Larranaga, and for a lot of the same reasons. The school is a public school, little known outside its own state, and basketball success was basically unprecedented before this run, even though the team was quietly excellent all season long. The Patriots had only been to the Tournament three other times before 2006 — twice with Larranaga — and never won a game. They also only one once more in the Tournament after this, getting to the second round in 2011 before Larranaga left for Coral Gables. George Mason hasn’t been back to the Tourney since Larranaga left and is about to be on its fourth coach since his departure.
This story was originally published March 29, 2023 at 10:50 AM with the headline "Where FAU ranks among the Final Four’s all-time Cinderellas (and why it’s not really one)."
