Election watch 2024: Get ready for liberals vs. super liberals in WA. Here’s why | Opinion

Labor Day is behind us. Politically, this means we’re past the point when the overwhelming majority of serious candidates for statewide or congressional offices in Washington have launched their 2024 campaigns.

There are some interesting races shaping up, but only one — an expected rematch in Washington’s 3rd congressional district — is a classic R vs. D showdown. Most now involve primaries pitting liberal and somewhat less liberal Democrats.

Then there is the governor’s race, which highlights how unusual politics has become in the Trump era.

There have been some significant developments since I last wrote about the 2024 campaigns, the biggest being former Congressman Dave Reichert’s decision to run for Governor. Establishment Republicans are gleeful and have raced to endorse Reichert, and the conventional wisdom says it will be Reichert vs. Attorney General Bob Ferguson next November.

Maybe. But Reichert has not unified the typical Republican coalition, which should be cause for concern for those Establishment Republicans doing backflips over the well-known former King County Sheriff’s candidacy.

There is another Republican in the race, Semi Bird, from the Tri-Cities. While an impressive list of Republican officeholders and luminaries have endorsed Reichert, Bird has firmly established himself as the MAGA candidate. Nine GOP county parties have endorsed Bird, and he held a fundraiser this summer with 3rd Congressional district candidate Joe Kent and Florida Congressman Matt Gaetz, both MAGA superstars.

Complicating matters, Reichert is no fan of Donald Trump, having said at one point he would arrest the disgraced and indicted former president if he were still King County Sheriff. Reichert will be forced to talk about Trump as the campaign heats up, and MAGA candidates have been winning primaries in Washington recently.

In addition, Reichert has not locked up the typical Republican-business fundraising coalition. As of the most recent public filings Reichert has raised just over $460,000. At this point in 2012, Republican Rob McKenna had raised over $1.5 million. The problem for Reichert is that many traditional Republican donors, including individuals, law enforcement and business association political action committees are supporting Democratic State Sen. Mark Mullet of Sammamish. Mullet has outraised Reichert by roughly $270,000.

Just as in California, the business community in Washington is beginning to realize Republicans can’t win on the West Coast and they are better off supporting moderate Democrats. Mullet is pro-choice and stands with his party on most issues. But he is a business owner who opposed the capital gains tax and the long-term care tax, and a politician who supports law enforcement in the debates over police practices. Many typical Republican funders coalesced behind Mullet early and appear to be sticking with him.

So, Dave Reichert is between a rock and a hard place. Maybe he finishes in the top two in the August primary, based on name identification, but it’s also easy to envision a scenario where he finishes behind Bird, Mullet, or both.

And finally, the real question: Does any of this actually matter?

Democratic Lands Commissioner Hillary Franz is also running, but Ferguson is the unquestioned heavyweight in this race, having raised over $3.8 million already. He has unified the Democratic party behind him, and no Republican has been elected governor in Washington since 1980. Ferguson is the overwhelming favorite.

Here is how a few other important races are shaking up:

Third Congressional District: Nothing has changed here, and nothing is likely to change through election day. This southwest Washington race between ultra-MAGA Republican Joe Kent and Democrat Maria Gluesenkamp Perez will be extremely close.

Attorney General: Liberal Democratic state Sen. Manka Dhingra of Redmond announced her candidacy early on, but Governor Jay Inslee and the Democratic establishment are supporting former U.S. Attorney Nick Brown, who is viewed as more centrist on drug and crime issues than Dhingra. No Republican has filed paperwork to run. The race for the state’s second most important partisan office will be Democrat vs. Democrat.

Commissioner of Public Lands: Hillary Franz, the incumbent, is running for Governor, and the race to replace her is getting crowded. Democratic state Sen. Kevin Van De Wege of Port Angeles is considered the moderate and has earned support from the farming and resource-based business community.

Van De Wage is now facing four serious Democrats, all of whom are generally considered more liberal on resource-based issues. Former state Sen. Mona Das of Kent, King County Council member Dave Upthegrove, who resides in Des Moines, state Sen. Rebecca Saldana of Seattle and Patrick DePoe, the Tribal Relations Director for the Department of Natural Resources, have all announced their candidacies.

Surprisingly, former Republican Congresswoman Jaimie Herrera-Beutler has been making phone calls, gauging support for a possible run.

But again, Herrera-Beutler would be an anti-Trump Republican getting into a race where her potential funders are already supporting a moderate Democrat.

Other races: No Republicans have filed to run for Lt. Governor, Secretary of State, Insurance Commissioner, State Auditor or State Treasurer. No serious candidates have emerged to challenge Democratic U.S. Sen. Cantwell or any of our liberal congressional incumbents other than Gluesenkamp Perez, including in the 8th district where Democratic Rep. Kim Schrier was considered vulnerable just last year.

It wasn’t always this bleak for Republicans, it’s worth remembering.

In 2004, President George W. Bush got 46% of the vote in Washington. (Trump was under 40% in 2016 and 2020.) Rob McKenna won the AG’s race. Reichert won in the 8th CD. Republicans were reelected Lands Commissioner and Secretary of State. Congressman George Nethercutt put up a good fight for the Senate. And Republican Dino Rossi was elected Governor twice, before losing a contested final recount.

As late as 2015 Republicans had a one-seat majority in the State Senate and were a near majority in the House.

Washington was once a purple state. Trump has turned us deep blue.

This story was originally published September 16, 2023 at 5:00 AM with the headline "Election watch 2024: Get ready for liberals vs. super liberals in WA. Here’s why | Opinion."