Democrats dominate WA politics. But a divide in the party threatens its ability to govern
This year I got to see and feel the realities of Washington state’s political system up close and personal. I spent 2022 running for a seat in the Washington State Senate as an independent. I lost.
My opponent was a Republican incumbent, so I ran with much of the Democratic party infrastructure supporting me, and I got an inside look at the party I spent much of my career working against. Most importantly, I rang 5,000 doorbells, which led to hundreds of discussions with very typical suburban voters.
The 2022 election confirmed once again that Republicans, weighed down by the toxicity of their national brand, cannot win major statewide races in Washington or achieve legislative majorities. At the same time, the Democrats face challenges of their own. Tensions in the party over crime and the economy may begin to impact the Democrats’ ability to deliver on their agenda.
Donald Trump’s takeover of the GOP intensified the problem that has crippled the party for at least two decades in Washington: it is mathematically impossible to win statewide without getting at least 40% of the vote in King County, and it is impossible for Republicans to win majorities in the State House and Senate without winning at least a few seats in King County. Their national message makes this impossible, so Republicans will remain in the minority for the foreseeable future. In fact, as areas like Clark and Skagit counties become more urbanized, Republicans will be hard-pressed to hold onto the seats they have now.
Democrats are in no real danger of losing control in our state anytime soon. Still, the party faces real problems of its own, which I heard about from voters — and Democrats themselves.
Six days a week (weather permitting) I knocked on the doors of likely midterm voters. The 31st legislative district, where I live and ran for office, is made up of small older towns and new suburban subdivisions in east Pierce and south King counties. When voters chose to engage with me, the theme was almost always centered on crime, or more accurately, disorder.
People would tell me their house was just broken into; that they routinely witnessed shoplifting, and crime in their neighborhood. I heard stories about people buying guns for the first time, and about being afraid to go to Seattle. And voters had all heard all about the package of bills the Democrats passed changing how police are allowed to function in the field.
At the same time, Democratic policies regarding the environment and the economy are causing tensions within their coalition. During endorsement interviews with business groups and some unions, I consistently heard concerns about Governor Jay Inslee’s aggressive actions on climate issues. Several prominent building trades union representatives told me they had donated to Republicans this year, or at least refused to support Democrats, largely because of Democratic policies on the environment that they felt would cost them jobs.
On the campaign trail, Democratic lawmakers, consultants and funders told me how the clashes over crime and the economy were increasing tensions between the progressive majority in the Democratic party and their more moderate members. As Republicans fade on the West Coast the same thing is happening in California. More and more often the real battles are not R vs D, but moderate D vs Progressive D.
Democrats enjoy big majorities in Olympia. So far, the party has been able to manage internal conflicts well. I wouldn’t predict major upheavals in 2023. But if progressives continue to push the Democratic party to the left, at some point a reaction seems inevitable. It may become harder to hold Democrats together to pass major legislation.
It is even possible that moderate Democrats might form a coalition with the Republican minority. It has happened in Olympia before. In 1963, moderate Democrats voted with Republicans to elect a moderate Speaker of the House. And in 2012 and 1987, dissident moderate Democrats in the State Senate worked with Republicans to take over the drafting of the state budget. By the way, I was a young Senate Republican staff member during the 1987 uprising.
The 2022 election did not change the narrative in Washington state. Our two-party system means that here, one party remains locked out of power while the other is locked in a struggle to hold its coalition together.
Below the surface, however, tensions are building.
Chris Vance is a former Republican state legislator, King County Council member and State Party Chairman who left the GOP in 2017 and is now a member of the moderate Forward Party. Vance and his wife, Annmarie, live in Sumner.
This story was originally published December 14, 2022 at 5:00 AM with the headline "Democrats dominate WA politics. But a divide in the party threatens its ability to govern."