La Niña is over. What’s in the fall and winter forecast for Western Washington?
Fall and winter in Bellingham, and the rest of Western Washington, could be closer to seasonal norms, as last winter’s La Niña weather pattern — now in a neutral phase — is expected to return half-heartedly late in the year.
A La Niña watch issued Thursday, Aug. 14, indicates that Pacific Ocean surface temperatures off equatorial South America are expected to drop, a factor that typically means cold, wet weather for the Pacific Northwest.
In addition, long-range forecasts from the National Weather Service Climate Prediction Center are showing a warmer-than-normal fall with equal chances of above- or below-normal rainfall. The National Weather Service defines fall as September, October and November and winter as December, January and February.
Deputy state climatologist Karin Bumbaco told The Bellingham Herald that there’s still some uncertainty surrounding the rainy season, which begins in October.
“By the September-October-November period, we could be seeing La Niña conditions,” Bumbaco told The Herald in a phone call. “I think that’s tentatively good news considering the drier conditions we’ve been having. It’s not supposed to be a strong (La Niña) event (and) it won’t be lasting very long.”
Does that rule out a Fraser Outflow and lowland snow for Whatcom County, when arctic air blows in from British Columbia?
“We have a chance of that most winters. It’s hard to predict that on a seasonal scale. The chances are the same as any other year,” Bumbaco said.
“We saw a little taste of (fall) last weekend (but) we’re still in summer,” she said.
This story was originally published August 21, 2025 at 5:00 AM.
