What happened to La Niña? And what’s next for Whatcom weather?
A rare three-year La Niña has ended, NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center said in an advisory, capping a series of cold and wet winters that brought devastating floods to Whatcom County in 2020 and 2021.
What that means for next fall and winter in Western Washington and Whatcom County is anyone’s guess, however, because it’s too early to say with certainty, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration said in a report published March 9.
Current conditions are neutral, meaning that ocean surface temperatures off the coast of South America have moderated, and neither an El Niño or a La Niña is dominating.
But many forecasters believe that El Niño conditions will develop by fall, meaning that ocean surface temperatures will warm.
Cycles of ocean surface warming and cooling — called El Niño and La Niña — are important because they influence where the jet stream sends heavy rains like the storms that are devastating parts of California.
▪ In La Niña years, those storms tend to focus on Western Washington, giving the Evergreen State cooler and wetter winters with a greater chance of lowland snow.
▪ In El Niño years, the jet stream aims father south and Western Washington winters are warmer and drier than average.
Meanwhile, the Climate Prediction Center’s forecast for spring in the Northwest calls for continued cooler-than-normal temperatures with an equal chance of normal rainfall for the months of March-April-May.
