UPDATE: Latest Whatcom predictions showing higher flood levels possible for Nooksack River
With the next wave of wet weather forecast to hit Whatcom County over the weekend, the Nooksack River is now predicted to reach “moderate flood stage” on Sunday, Nov. 28. Officials warn that the impacts could be greater than usual at those levels because of the cumulative effects of storms that have already hit the region.
Due to the approaching storm this weekend, Whatcom County remains under a Flood Watch until 4 p.m. Sunday, Nov. 28, according to the National Weather Service, meaning conditions are favorable, but not imminent, for flooding.
“At this point, the Nooksack River is projected to reach moderate flood stage on Sunday, Nov. 28,” the Whatcom County Sheriff’s Office’s Division of Emergency Management said in a release. “Damage to levee systems from previous storms may result in greater impacts to the floodplain areas than would typically be experienced at these river levels.
“There is much uncertainty as a result of last week’s flood flows. However, based on the latest flood models, Sunday morning’s predicted flows are likely high enough to overtop Main Street in Everson. Everson impacts could happen very early on Sunday morning. The potential also exists for this to impact Sumas.”
Because of that, the Whatcom County Sheriff’s Office Search and Rescue, area fire districts and other response personnel and the Washington State National Guard are being pre-deployed in advance of the storm system reaching Whatcom County, according to the release.
National Guard troops are expected to arrive in Whatcom County Saturday to assist local agencies, according to the release, including sandbagging, transporting supplies and providing support to Nooksack, Sumas and Everson.
Additionally, Whatcom County Public Works has sent sand and sandbag supplies to Everson and Sumas in preparation for the storm.
Latest weather forecast
Though the sun was out Friday morning, the National Weather Service in Seattle cautioned on Twitter that the break will be “brief,” as the next system is expected to arrive Saturday, Nov. 27, and bring “more widespread rain.”
That next system is expected to bring “moderate to heavy” rain to the area, according to the National Weather Service’s latest predictions, with the heaviest rainfall amounts over the Olympics and north/central Cascades.
A National Weather Service map Friday afternoon shows expected rainfall totals for Whatcom County between midnight Saturday, Nov. 27, and midnight Monday, Nov. 29, to range from 2 to 3 inches in the lowlands and 4 to 6 inches in the high country.
“Rivers may continue to run high with the rainfall over the weekend with flooding possible,” according to the forecast, which added there is potential for breezy conditions Saturday night.
River flooding is also possible with “minor to moderate inundation of flood-prone areas” in a number of areas in Western Washington, including the Nooksack River. Major flooding is possible on the Skagit River, according to the forecast.
The weekend storm is projected to be heavier than a third storm expected to hit the region Tuesday into Wednesday, the National Weather Service said. That storm will arrive after a “relatively quiet and dry” Monday, which should allow area rivers to gradually recede.
Drier weather is predicted for Thursday onward, according to the National Weather Service.
The storm that hit Whatcom County on Thanksgiving brought 1.29 inches of rain to Bellingham International Airport, according to a tweet Thursday by the National Weather Service. That broke the 1977 record of 1.16 inches for the date.
So far, there has been 10.4 inches of rain at the airport in November, which is double the average (5.2 inches) for the month, according to the National Weather Service.
County monitoring Nooksack River
As of a Thursday afternoon release by the Whatcom County Sheriff’s Office Division of Emergency Management, river predictions showed the Nooksack River expected to crest Friday and again Sunday night at Cedarville and Ferndale.
“At this point it appears to be in the minor flood range,” the release states. “Damage to levee systems may result in greater impacts to the floodplain areas than would typically be experienced at these river levels. Predictions can and do change.”
Repairs are underway on the Twinview Levee, which is upstream from the Everson bridge, according to the release.
“As long as it does not go over in Everson again, we should just see localized water in the normal areas on road ways,” the City of Sumas said in a Facebook post Thursday evening.
The Timon Levee, which is on the north side of the Nooksack River upstream from Lynden, breached last week, the release reported, adding that the Army Corps of Engineers will not be able to close the breach before the next series of storms.
“This may result in flooding of Timon, Northwood, Hampton and Hannegan Roads and the surrounding area,” the county release states. “The exact amount of flooding is difficult to predict at this time. The timing of the flooding could be expected Friday night into Saturday and again Sunday night in to Monday.”
Whatcom County’s road closure report at 12:15 p.m. Friday included Slater Road being closed between Ferndale Road and the railroad tracks. Thursday’s release said Slater was likely to close due to flooding before Friday because of a breach in the Marine Drive Levee that occurred during a previous storm. Ferndale Road also was closed Friday from Slater to Marine Drive, according to the road closures, though Haxton Drive remained open.
“Now is the time to prepare,” Thursday’s release states. “If you have not already begun preparations, please do so now.”
Ferndale mayor Greg Hansen echoed that in a statement Thursday, saying, “City staff and Public Works crews are on standby today and in the days to follow with all available resources ready to respond if river levels make this necessary. ... If you are within a flood area, be prepared to secure your vehicles and belongings.”
Hansen also recommended Ferndale residents clean leaves and other debris from around storm drains and check on their neighbors who might need help.
This story was originally published November 26, 2021 at 10:33 AM.
