Another snowy winter for Whatcom? Or will it be warm and rainy?
This winter’s outlook for Western Washington could be anybody’s guess, with some predictions seeing a wetter than normal season and others thinking it will be warm and dry.
An official forecast for “meteorological winter” — the months of December through February — is due in mid-November from the National Weather Service’s Climate Prediction Center.
But the center’s current “long-lead” forecasts for Western Washington show a greater than 50% chance of above-normal temperatures for October through December with a greater than 50% chance of more rain than normal.
Models also show an equal chance of above- or below-normal temperatures for December through February, with a 50% chance of above-normal rain.
So, a warm, wet fall and an average winter?
“Long-range forecasting in itself is subtle or vague for a reason,” said Dustin Guy, a meteorologist with the National Weather Service in Seattle.
“It’s more of a trend, not a day-to-day forecast,” he told The Bellingham Herald in an interview.
Complicating matters is a phenomenon called La Niña, which means that surface temperatures of the Pacific Ocean off western South America are cooler than normal.
Guy said when that happens, high pressure over the central Pacific usually sends the winter “storm track” over Western Washington.
A La Niña watch was issued for this season, meaning that there’s a 60% chance of a La Niña weather pattern developing, Guy said.
“A La Niña typically would give us a fairly wet winter, but it’s a little too early to say,” Guy said.
Those La Niña winters also tend to be cooler, he said.
But will there be a Frasier Outflow, which brought frigid weather to Whatcom County in February 2019 and January 2020, or a Pineapple Express that flooded Everson and Sumas last year?
Here’s what others had to say:
Farmers’ Almanac
Editors of the Farmers’ Almanac, which has been making seasonal forecasts since 1818, see wet weather for the Pacific coastal region, with mild and dry conditions for the inland Northwest
“Right along the Pacific Coastal Plain, from Northern California and points north through western portions of Oregon and Washington, rainy and wet weather will be the rule for the winter ahead,” the Farmers’ Almanac said on its website.
Its editors use a secret “specific and reliable set of rules” that consider sunspot activity, tidal action of the moon, position of the planets and other factors.
AccuWeather
AccuWeather, which provides commercial weather forecasting services for businesses, also sees a mild winter ahead.
“Strong high pressure over the region is likely to lead to drier conditions and above-normal temperatures,” AccuWeather’s long-range forecaster Paul Pastelok said on its website.
The Bellingham Herald uses AccuWeather’s daily weather forecast graphic in its print editions.
“I can see some places this winter in the Northwest being about 20 to 40 percent lower on the snowfall compared to average,” Pastelok said.
Pastelok said the lack of mountain snow will affect the region’s ski season and will continue to affect the weather into spring.
“For those who rely on hydropower: If water levels are down, it could have an effect on cost,” he said.
National Weather Service
Climate Prediction Center models also show an equal chance of above- or below-normal temperatures for December through February, with a 50% chance of above-normal rain.
There’s also a 60 percent chance of a La Niña weather pattern developing.
Environment Canada
Canadian meteorologists are seeing an equal chance of above- or below-normal temperatures and rainfall for the South Coast of British Columbia and Northwest Washington.
