'A way of life': What's happening in the wild world of wheat

May 30-ROSALIA - Inside a pole building 35 miles south of Spokane, Scott Roecks flipped through a stack of framed black-and-white photographs of his grandfather farming the family's land.

Stoic and hardened, the photos of Roecks' grandfather showed him and approximately 15 others riding clunky, horse-drawn harrows.

Before combines burst onto the agricultural scene, Roecks' grandfather also went from farm to farm with his threshing mechanism and separated edible grain seeds from the chaff.

"What they cut in a day then, we can cut in half an hour," he said, examining and appreciating the photos.

Roecks and his wife, Laurie, have called the rolling hills of the Palouse home for their entire life, just like their parents did and their parents' parents before them.

But it's getting harder.

To break even, a wheat farmer in Eastern Washington needs a bushel of wheat to fetch $7.71 a bushel, said Michelle Hennings, executive director of the Washington Association of Wheat Growers.

Last week the price hovered at about $6.50 per bushel. And that's before transporting wheat to Portland.

The result is farmers requiring additional operating loans. And if that's still not enough as farmers await those elusive bumper crop years, wheat growers have to consider selling equipment and sometimes their farms.

At the age of 4, Scott was riding with his father in a combine drastically different from the one he drives today. He followed on the heels of his dad everywhere around the farm as a child, his wife exuberantly explained. By age 9, he was driving the combine.

Farming is a way of life for the Roecks, but that doesn't mean the work comes easily.

"The hardest thing is, we need to make sure that it's sustainable for the next generation," Laurie Roecks said.

A report from the U.S. Department of Agriculture ranked Washington last among all 50 states in net farm revenue - negative $396 million in farm income for 2024. Alaska was the only other state with negative returns in 2024 at negative $10.5 million.

The report includes money collected for crops such as wheat, potatoes and apples, along with animals and government aid, then measures that against expenses that include fertilizer, fuel, feed and other costs.

Three years prior, Washington ranked 14th in the nation for profitability. Farmers across the state collected profits of $2.8 billion.

Michelle Hennings, executive director of Washington Association of Wheat Growers, said the steep drop-off in the profitability of her constituency has mostly to do with rising input costs. For example, she said, fertilizer has doubled in price, and fuel costs are higher and unpredictable.

In 2025, the International Energy Agency reported that nearly 25% of the world's seaborne oil trade passes through the Strait of Hormuz, so when Iran closed it, prices spiked.

When the price of fuel goes up, so does most everything else, said Eric Jessup, the director of the Freight Policy Transportation Institute at Washington State University. The United States is burning through its emergency oil reserve in an attempt to protect consumers from skyrocketing petroleum prices. When that surplus is exhausted, Jessup expects the price of fuel to go up even more.

As of May 29, the national average for gas sat at $4.39 per gallon, which is a 47% increase since the Iran war began in February, as reported by NBC News. Washington is the second most expensive state in the country for gasoline, with an average of $5.73 per gallon, according to AAA. Washington is also the third most spendy state when it comes to diesel, behind only California and Hawaii.

"I don't see any evidence indicating that that is going to be resolved anytime soon," Jessup said. "And until that does occur, I expect those costs to continue to be high and increasing."

Gil Crosby, president of the state's wheat growers association, said it costs about $1.15 per bushel to transport his wheat to Portland along the Columbia River.

"So that moves the price from, say, $6.50 down to $5.35. Then I have to take out any deductions or damage I have when I harvest," Crosby said. "I mean, you might look at the price of $6.50, but I'm getting five and a quarter here."

Another issue for him is labor. The only person he hires is his sister for harvest season. Even if he could afford to hire workers, he doesn't know how long they'd stick around.

"When we're having to pay kids 20 bucks an hour to come out and help," he said, "then you got to train them on how to do it, and then by the time you get them trained, they're like, 'Well, I can go up to KFC and get a job for 21 bucks an hour.' "

In Washington, employees who work more than 40 hours in a seven-day workweek must be paid at least one-and-a-half times the employee's regular hourly rate. For most other industries, this is wonderful news for workers. But in agriculture, harvest season requires long hours in the fields, sometimes up to 15 hours a day. Crosby said an employee can work 40 hours in the first three days.

Crosby cited a Washington State Department of Agriculture report from June 2025 that said Washington lost, on average, two family farms a day between 2017 and 2022. Right around 94% of all Washington farms are family-owned and operated. With the average age of farmers hovering between 57 and 58 years old, according to data from the U.S. Department of Agriculture, there are serious concerns about the future of family farming in the U.S.

"It's scary for farmers right now," Hennings said. "Especially when we see farms, you see neighbors starting to go out of business. Then you're seeing land that's not being refurbished for agriculture. I also farm, and it's a way of life, it's not just a job."

Commodity prices cruised, then crashed

Wheat prices hit an all-time high in 2022 due to the culmination of the pandemic and the war in Ukraine. Because roughly 28% of all wheat exports come from Russia and Ukraine, prices spiked to just over $12 a bushel. The price surge didn't last.

But while commodity prices have fluctuated over the past few years, the input costs for farmers have remained doggedly high.

Just to stay competitive in the current climate, the Roecks said they have had to triple the scope of their farm since the couple got married in 1990. Yet most of the land they farm on, they don't own. It's split between their relatives' land and retired farmers who got out of the game and now lease their land to the Roecks.

Scott said his father tried to convince him to go down a different path when he was younger. He wanted him to be anything other than a farmer.

"Just like right now, why would you want to do this?" Scott said.

"And yet, you can't fathom not doing it," Laurie added.

A wacky weather warning

On top of all the conundrums facing farmers in Washington, this year was the state's third-worst snowpack year on record. This year is also shaping up to be a "super" El Niño, which typically means warmer-than-average temperatures in the Northwest.

Deepti Singh, an associate professor at Washington State University's School of the Environment, said right now is a "time of uncertainty in the forecasts," but that all the signs are pointing to it being a strong El Niño event.

"There's some likelihood of it being as strong, if not stronger than the 1877-78 El Niño event," Singh said. "It's at least going to be as strong as the 2015 El Niño event, and so there is reason to be concerned and prepared for the potential consequences of this event."

El Niño, which means "little boy" in Spanish, is a warming of ocean waters that develops in the east and central tropical Pacific Ocean every few years. Ocean temperatures this year have potential to swell 5.4 degrees above what's considered to be normal surface temperature, according to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration. An El Niño event is categorized as "super" if there's a 3.6-degree rise.

The super El Niño of 1877 decimated crops around the world and led to a global famine that purportedly killed between 50 and 60 million people. Yet the social and economic state of the world, Singh said, looks considerably different today than it did 150 years ago.

"The key thing that's different from 150 years ago is that we live in a world where our food systems are more connected, which can be both a good and a bad thing," Singh said.

A good thing, she said, because local losses in a certain crop can be compensated with production from other parts of the world. But unexpected changes in production in certain parts of the world can cascade through the global food chain, often resulting in price spikes.

Singh said El Niño is often associated with droughts, but it can cause heavy rainfall in different regions of the globe.

"For parts of the western U.S., the typical El Niño teleconnection is that it's expected to be warmer than normal in the winter," Singh said, adding that warmer winters tend to equate to more pests in the spring and summer. "These warmer-than-normal conditions can drive reduction in yield anomalies in yields of several crops. ... Wheat is particularly sensitive to temperatures, and so those warmer temperatures can have a negative effect on the production of wheat."

Crosby, who's been a full-time farmer since 1994, said he's had numerous bountiful yields during El Niño years. He's not entirely sure what a super El Niño will mean for his wheat, but he isn't getting his hopes up.

"We had good moisture seeding into the spring," Crosby said. "I mean, all of our wheat looks pretty good. We just need timely rains."

The Roecks aren't entirely sure what their wheat yield will end up looking like this year, but they said in early May that they're "fine." At least so far. On May 11, Scott Roecks said a rain shower within the next 10 days would be great and that they could really use another solid shower in June.

"Usually we get enough rain," Laurie Roecks said. "Of course, Mother Nature is (either) our friend or our enemy."

Apart from praying for some droplets of water to fall from the sky, once the fertilizer is in the ground, the Roecks get to fixing fences for their small herd of cattle, repairing farm equipment and getting everything in place for harvest season.

Fertilizer and the real monster lurking

When Laurie Roecks isn't busy at the farm, she serves as vice president of the Washington Association of Wheat Growers. As part of her role within this lobbying group, she's often forced to travel to talk with legislators in the state and national capitols.

"It is very interesting when you go to either Olympia or D.C., just because you kind of get in your head, that maybe they don't care," Laurie said. "But a lot of times, I come back and I tell Scott, 'For the most part, people do care about the farm.' "

Crosby, who farms about 1,500 acres near Waverly, said he's had a similar experience with most politicians every time he visits the national or state capitols.

He said he can't recall a time when farmers and the importance of agriculture were discussed as much as it is today on the national level. He said the government is trying to help out farmers, pointing to the administration's concerted effort to rebuild domestic fertilizer manufacturing, accelerate permitting and reduce the country's dependence on foreign supplies in an attempt to lower costs for the average farmer.

A fourth-generation farmer from the small community of Bickleton in Klickitat County, Andy Juris has witnessed first-hand just how much fertilizer has gone up.

Juris uses UAN 32, a liquid nitrogen fertilizer, on his crop. This time a year ago, he said one ton cost between $350 to $400. By fall 2025, it rose to $450.

"And that price held right up to Day 1 of the war," Juris said.

When Israel and the United States attacked Iran on Feb. 28, Juris said, the price jumped to $550.

"It's $650 to $750 right now, depending on who you're talking to," Juris said.

Juris believes that winter wheat producers should be set, as they applied most of their fertilizer last year. For spring wheat it's a bit different. Juris said it's a matter of whether a farmer locked in their supply and price ahead of time. In his case, he committed their fertilizer pricing before the war.

Juris considers the Trump administration's attempt to increase the domestic supply of fertilizer "nice sentiment," but doesn't think it'll do much of anything in the near future. Infrastructure takes years to build, he said, and the U.S. has "actively discouraged domestic production of most raw materials for the past 50 years and relied on a global system."

He called worsening climate conditions, like El Niño, nerve-wracking to think about. Between weather, input costs and everything else, Juris answered with a "maybe" when asked if he thought he'd still be farming five years from now. He followed that up by saying farmers are both phenomenal pessimists to talk to because it never rains at the right time, but they're also insane optimists because even if something goes horribly wrong, they always believe next year will be better.

Most folks who visit the grocery store have noticed the price of food go up over the last few years. Juris said many would assume agriculture workers are the ones who reap the benefits of higher food costs, but admitted they're just "simply not." In the future, he imagines costs will only continue to rise.

"2026 is going to be tough, but the real monster lurking out there is going to be 2027," he said. "If the war were to end today, there may be, within six months, a relief on oil. You may slowly see a drawdown in fuel prices, but the fertilizer situation has been damaged for the medium to long term."

"Adopt a Democrat"

Jessup, the agricultural economist at WSU, said getting policies through the state Legislature that could help farmers may be a challenge based "upon the political realities of the state."

"The best thing I think that would help our farmers in the state would be a reduced regulatory burden," Jessup said.

As a rancher living in Moses Lake, Republican state Rep. Tom Dent feels he's positioned to understand the struggles of farmers.

One of the biggest issues he has with state policy revolves around the fuel tax included in the Climate Commitment Act. Under the CCA, oil refineries are required to purchase carbon credits to offset their emissions, and then refineries pass that cost on to the people paying at the pump. This gas tax is one of the highest in the country and adds around 50 to 60 cents to a gallon, Dent said.

Dent would like to see the state government pass a farmers' exemption.

He'd also like to see the same kind of exemption to the overtime rule for agriculture workers.

But as the ranking minority member on the House Agriculture and Natural Resources Committee, he believes his biggest job is to simply educate and advocate. He often invites members of the House, usually urban Democrats, to his ranch so that they can get a taste of the bucolic. Sometimes, he even bribes them. Just not with money.

"I mean, who can turn down a buffalo burger?" he said.

Democratic state Rep. Kristine Reeves, the chair of Washington's House Agriculture and Natural Resources Committee, completely agreed with Dent in saying that it's critical to bridge the divide between farmers and Olympia.

"That's why I got along so well with Joel Kretz and JP Wilcox (both former Republican representatives) and Tom (Dent)," Reeves said. "It's because they're willing to open the door to have the hard conversations and instead of assuming I'm just an idiot, they're like, 'Well, let's assume she may not know, and our job is to educate and inform her.' "

In the case of the climate act, she said many of her colleagues believe that saving the planet from climate change is the No. 1 priority. Her response is, "If the purpose of saving the planet is so the people on it can have a better quality of life, then the people on it need to feel like they're empowered to be part of that solution."

With that said, she's not confident a Democratic majority would be inclined to roll back the act or labor regulations.

"Maybe it's not rolling back fuel prices, but maybe it is creating a tax incentive that can offset that fuel price," she suggested instead.

To build relationships between farmers and the legislators in Olympia, she said she needs more input from farmers. Not just about what the politicians are doing wrong, but also about what they're doing right so that nothing beneficial is cast to the wayside when the next legislative session comes around.

Reeves said no silver bullet will fix the ailments afflicting farmers.

But they hope to accomplish a few things in the shorter term: institute a state farm bill, ensure Washington-grown produce goes to Washington schools and food banks, and ramp up conversations with farming communities to learn more about what they want from their politicians. By this October, she hopes to have more concrete policies and ideas ready to go for 2027.

In the meantime, her advice to farmers is simple: "Adopt a Democrat."

"It's really about taking the time and energy to invest in the long-term trust building and relationship building that has been torn down, quite frankly, by the political rhetoric in our country," Reeves said.

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