Whatcom County stands to lose millions as U.S.-Canada trade war intensifies
A trade war between the U.S. and Canada could have devastating financial effects in Whatcom County as America’s neighbors to the north shun cross-border travel, according to early data.
Retailers and local governments that are dependent on sales taxes could feel the pinch of a “thickening” U.S.-Canada border, the director of the Border Policy Research Institute at Western Washington University told the Whatcom County Council in a March 25 presentation.
Annual bilateral trade through land ports of entry in Whatcom County amounted to $18 billion, WWU’s Laurie Trautman told the council. Figures in her presentation were based on the most recent data, which is from studies conducted in 2018 and 2019 and excludes Point Roberts, she said.
“That sales tax impact is something I’m worried about both on our revenues and on the cities in the county. So that’s something we should keep an eye on,” Councilman Jon Scanlon said during the presentation.
Nearly 80% of people crossing the border were going to someplace in Whatcom County, and they were spending $140 million a year, boosting the local economy with short, frequent trips, Trautman said.
That figure amounted to 11.7% of taxable retail sales in Whatcom County.
In January there was a 15% rise in cross-border travel, with 61,000 trips to Blaine alone, Trautman said. By February, as anti-Canadian rhetoric from the Trump administration began to increase, there was a 30% drop in Canadians crossing the border into Whatcom County.
So-called “submarkets” across the U.S.-Canada border are all showing declines. Bellingham and Northwest Washington felt the effects most with a 12% drop, followed by Glacier County, Mont., and Niagra Falls, N.Y., at 8% each, Trautman said.
“Obviously, U.S.-Canada relations are very strained right now. Half of Canadians polled (in March) approach the U.S. now as a threat to national interests, with 13% considering the U.S. an enemy. This is unprecedented in peacetime,” Trautman said.
A movement is taking hold in Canada to boycott U.S.-made goods and avoid travel to the states, she said.
Observations in recent months show that there are more parking spaces available at retailers favored by Canadian shoppers, including Trader Joe’s, Costco and Bellis Fair mall.
Whatcom County spokesman Jed Holmes told The Herald that it’s too early to tell how the decline in cross-border travel will affect the local economy.
“We understand that retailers are feeling the impacts of worsening relations, but we won’t be able to quantify that until we see the actual difference in tax receipts in a couple months,” Holmes said.
A new surcharge on personal goods as part of the Canadian counter-tariffs is being enforced seriously at the border and is a “huge disincentive” for Canadians to make purchases in Whatcom County, Trautman said.
“Canadians are deeply, deeply troubled and upset and angry and — tariffs aside — just that (51st state) rhetoric alone is incredibly damaging,” she said.
Lack of cross-border travel is hitting the border town of Blaine particularly hard because it has no industrial base and depends almost entirely on tourism, Mayor May Lou Steward told The Bellingham Herald in a phone interview.
Some 2 million Canadians visit Blaine annually, spending $25 million, according to WWU research.
“Our businesses have been struggling, even before the so-called tariffs. Canadians, as mild as they are, got quite angry, and they decided that they were going to show us something. An by gosh they are,” Steward said.
This story was originally published April 8, 2025 at 5:00 AM.
