La Niña is back. Here’s what that means for Whatcom’s summer
There could be mixed climate news for Northwest Washington amid the West’s widespread drought and forecasts that the La Niña weather pattern could persist through summer for a third straight winter.
Three consecutive La Niña winters are so rare that climate science isn’t certain what it could mean, meteorologists at the National Weather Service and the University of Washington told The Bellingham Herald.
“We’ll obviously be watching what happens. It’s just something to keep in mind,” said Nick Bond, a UW professor and state climatologist.
The last time Northwest Washington saw three La Niña winters in a row was 1998-2001.
Heavy rain and snow in the winter of 1998-99 gave the Mt. Baker Ski Area a world-record annual snowfall of 1,140 inches in the first of three La Niña winters.
But the snowpack of 2000-2001 was 449 inches, according to verified data from the ski area.
Average snowfall from 2000-2001 to 2020-2021 was 642 inches, according to a Herald analysis of ski area data.
‘The last time we had that triple-whammy that winter was followed by some pretty bad drought in Washington state,” Bond said.
La Niña, a cooling of ocean surface temperatures along the equatorial Pacific, is a counterpart to El Niño, which is a warming trend in those waters and part of a regular warming/cooling cycle.
Usually, a La Niña pattern means a cold, wet winter for Western Washington, with a greater chance of lowland snow.
La Niña has affected the past two winters, which both featured long periods of lowland snow and several powerful rainstorms that caused flooding along the Nooksack River.
NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center’s outlook for May-July in Northwest Washington shows an equal chance of above- or below-normal temperatures with below-normal rainfall.
Current snowpack in the North Cascades is 113% of normal, according to a Natural Resources Conservation Service report issued Thursday, May 12.
Drought should not be a factor for Northwest Washington, according to a report from the U.S. Drought Monitor on Tuesday, May 10.
“There shouldn’t be a problem on the west side” of the Cascades, Bond said.
A persistent La Niña also could be good news for young salmon headed out to sea, because colder ocean water means they’ll find more food, Bond said.
“Right now, that looks pretty good. And last year was pretty good too,” he said.
This story was originally published May 12, 2022 at 12:35 PM.
