How big an impact did COVID-19 have on Bellingham’s population estimate last year?
About a thousand of our neighbors in Bellingham took COVID-19 guidelines a bit too far, apparently, and social distanced themselves right out of town.
Bellingham’s population shrank by 990 people, according to the Washington State Office of Financial Management official population estimates as of April 1, released Wednesday, June 30.
Bellingham now has an estimated 90,620 people calling it home, according to the report, which was a decrease of 1.08% from 2020 estimates.
Bellingham was one of only 11 incorporated cities or towns in Washington state to see their estimated population drop last year.
That caused it to tumble one spot to unlucky No. 13 in terms of the most populated cities in the state. Kirkland, which trailed Bellingham by 950 residents in 2020 estimates, moves up to No. 12 with an increase of 1,450 people in the 2021 estimates.
Overall, the Office of Financial Management estimates Washington state saw a 1.45% increase in population (110,725 people) last year and there are now 7,766,925 people in the state.
The U.S. Census Bureau is expected to release its detailed 2020 count in late August, which will allow the Office of Financial Management to “make more detailed comparisons for counties and cities. Until then, we have used our 2020 estimates for comparison,” according to a news release that accompanied the state’s data Wednesday.
A possible reason Bellingham saw its estimated population drop last year, according to the release, was COVID’s impact, particularly on the number of students living in Western Washington University dormitories.
“As we expected, the COVID-19 crisis dramatically affected the 2021 estimates,” the release states. “The findings show a decrease in births, increase in deaths, a dramatic drop in migration and in the population who live in group quarters. Many of the group quarters changes were large enough to cause population decline, particularly in areas with college dorms. We expect some of these changes will be temporary, with population rebounding once pandemic impacts subside.”
Though migration data was not released for Bellingham alone, Whatcom County did see a residual net migration of 774 people away from the county, according to the state’s data. It was the first time since 1969 and only the third time since 1960 the county has seen a loss in residual net migration.
Residual net migration is what’s leftover of the county’s annual estimated population change after births and deaths are factored out. The state also adjusts the net migration data to account for differences between its data and that of the U.S. Census Bureau.
Whatcom’s population
Despite seeing the number of people in its largest city decline, Whatcom County’s overall population estimate grew slightly last year, rising from 228,000 in 2020 to 228,700 in 2021, according to the state Office of Financial Management.
But the 0.31% rise was about a quarter of the 1.20% increase Whatcom saw last year.
In fact, Whatcom saw the smallest growth in the state, beating out only Walla Walla, Kittitas and Whitman counties, which all saw population decreases last year, according to the state.
Despite that, Whatcom remained the ninth-largest county among the 39 in the state, according to the state’s estimates.
And, if you factor out Bellingham’s loss of population, the rest of Whatcom County grew by 1.24% last year, according to an analysis by The Bellingham Herald.
Ferndale moves past Lynden
Among Whatcom’s smaller cities, Ferndale moved past Lynden to become the second-largest in the county, according to the data, while Sumas grew at the fastest rate in the county for the second straight year. Here is what the state’s 2021 estimates showed:
▪ Ferndale: Grew by 670 residents (4.59%) to 15,270 people.
▪ Lynden: Grew by 310 residents (2.09%) to 15,110 people.
▪ Blaine: Grew by 180 residents (3.26%) to 5,700 people.
▪ Everson: Grew by 70 residents (2.45%) to 2,930 people.
▪ Sumas: Grew by 95 residents (5.71%) to 1,760 people.
▪ Nooksack: Grew by 55 residents (3.34%) to 1,700 people.
▪ Unincorporated Whatcom County: Grew by 310 residents (0.33%) to 95,610 people, which represents 41.81% of the county’s total population.
The state estimates that the county had a natural increase of 12 people last year, as there were more estimated births (1,981) than deaths (1,969) in the county last year. That is down from a natural increase of 65 in 2020, as the estimated number of deaths jumped by 62 from last year.
