Whatcom sees 22 new COVID cases, fewer hospitalizations and a new variant appear Wednesday
Though it’s still failing both metrics the state of Washington will use to gauge whether Whatcom County can stay in Phase 3 or drop back to the stricter Phase 2 guidelines of Gov. Jay Inslee’s Healthy Washington — Roadmap to Recovery plan, the county did see some improved news.
Whatcom had 22 new COVID-19 cases added to its pandemic total on the Washington State Department of Health’s coronavirus dashboard Wednesday, May 12 — the county’s smallest reported increase in more than three weeks since two cases were reported April 19.
Additionally, the state adjusted the number of COVID-related hospitalizations for Whatcom County, dropping the number by nine, and no related deaths were reported Wednesday. Data adjustments, such as Wednesday’s reduction in hospitalization numbers, have been common throughout the pandemic as the Department of Health reviews new information.
Overall, Whatcom County has seen 8,544 confirmed cases, 399 hospitalizations and 93 related deaths during the pandemic, according to state data. An additional 338 probable cases — up five from the last report — have been reported in Whatcom County during the pandemic, resulting from positive antigen tests not confirmed by a molecular test.
With the 22 new cases reported Wednesday, Whatcom County’s daily average of new reported cases over the past week decreased to 36.4, which was still above the 34.3 average from one week earlier (April 29 through May 5).
St. Joseph hospital in Bellingham reported it was treating 19 COVID-related patients on Thursday — down three from Wednesday.
But when it comes to which phase the county will end up in after Inslee lifts the two-week pause to any phase movement he announced May 4, things don’t look quite as good for Whatcom. On Tuesday, May 11, Whatcom County Health Department Director Erika Lautenbach said she is expecting the governor to lift the pause Tuesday, May 18, and counties’ data wil be evaluated that day.
To remain in Phase 3, Whatcom County must make at least one of two data-driven goals set by the state on the next evaluation date:
▪ The first goal is for the county to have fewer than 200 new cases per 100,000 residents in a two-week period. Whatcom’s infection rate was 230.3 from April 21 to May 4, according to the latest update of the state’s Risk Assessment Dashboard. That means Whatcom is currently missing the goal.
▪ The second goal is for the county to have fewer than five new COVID-related hospitalizations per 100,000 residents in seven days. Whatcom had 18 COVID-related hospitalizations from April 25 to May 1 according to the state’s epidemiological curves. That means Whatcom is averaging 7.9 hospitalizations per 100,000 residents over the past week of completed data, according to analysis by The Bellingham Herald, and it is therefore currently missing the goal.
Based on analysis of the most recent data on the state’s epidemiological curves, some of which is incomplete and will likely change, The Bellingham Herald projects that Whatcom County will still be missing both goals and roll back to Phase 2 if the state evaluates data on Tuesday.
Whatcom currently projects to have an infection rate of 227.1 cases per 100,000 residents over the two weeks that would be measured and a hospitalization rate of 8.3 per 100,000 residents over the week that would be measured on Tuesday.
If Whatcom slides back to Phase 2:
▪ The maximum number of people allowed at indoor social gatherings will decrease from 10 to five people from different households and outdoor gatherings will be limited to 15 people, down from 50 in Phase 3.
▪ Maximum capacity for indoor worship services, retail stores, professional services, personal services, restaurants and bars, indoor sports and fitness establishments and indoor entertainment establishments will drop from 50% in Phase 3 to 25%.
▪ The maximum number of people allowed at outdoor sports and fitness establishments and outdoor entertainment events will drop from 400 in Phase 3 to 200.
Whatcom vaccination update
Wednesday’s vaccination report said that Whatcom County has administered 160,263 doses — up 0.85% (1,360 doses) from the last report. That was behind of the state’s 1.44% increase in doses administered for the same period.
Vaccination data is updated on Monday, Wednesday and Friday afternoons. Here is what data analysis of the latest numbers by The Bellingham Herald show:
▪ Whatcom County — the ninth-most populated county in Washington state with approximately 3% of the state’s total population, according to 2019 U.S. Census estimates — has administered the ninth-most doses of the 39 counties in the state.
▪ The state estimates 57.17% of eligible Whatcom County residents (those 16 and older) have initiated a COVID-19 vaccine — seventh-highest in the state. The state reports 107,781 people in Whatcom County have initiated vaccination — an increase of 651 from the last report.
▪ The state estimates 43.65% of eligible Whatcom County residents (those 16 and older) are fully vaccinated — ninth-highest in the state. The state reports 82,290 people in Whatcom County are fully vaccinated — an increase of 879 from the last report.
▪ Based on 2019 five-year population estimates from the U.S. Census Bureau, Whatcom County has administered 0.73 doses of vaccine per resident — 25th highest in the state and behind the overall state average of 0.82 doses per person.
▪ Statewide, there have been 6,046,656 vaccine doses administered — up 85,937 from the last report. So far, 3,528,927 residents (57.43% of all eligible residents in the state) have initiated vaccination and 2,683,216 (43.67%) have completed it.
COVID variant update
Whatcom County saw 22 new confirmed COVID-19 variant cases last week, according to the latest SARS-CoV-2 Sequencing and Variants report by the Washington State Department of Health released Wednesday. That was down from 24 new confirmed variant cases reported the week before.
Additionally, Whatcom saw its first confirmed case of the B.1.526 (New York) variant last week. Like the B.1.525 (New York) variant, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention classifies the B.1.526 as a Variant of Interest — the CDC’s lowest of three classifications for COVID variants.
Whatcom County now has at least one case of seven of the eight variants currently being tracked in Washington state.
Since its first confirmed variant case was reported Feb. 23, Whatcom has had a total of 133 variant cases through May 11, which accounts for 6.51% of Whatcom’s 2,042 cases reported since then and 1.57% of Whatcom’s pandemic total of 8,476 cases, according to analysis by The Herald.
Since last week, the state reports Whatcom County has seen:
▪ 10 new cases of the B.1.1.7 (U.K.) variant and 108 cases total, which is fourth most in the state behind, King, Snohomish and Pierce counties.
▪ No new cases of the B.1.351 (South Africa) variant and one case total.
▪ No new cases of the P.1 (Brazil) variant and five cases total.
▪ No new cases of the B.1.427 (California) variant and five cases total.
▪ Four new cases of the B.1.429 (California) variant and five cases total.
▪ One new case of the B.1.526 (New York) variant and one case total.
▪ No new cases of the B.1.525 (New York) variant and two cases total.
▪ No cases of the P.2 (Brazil) variant.
State vaccine allotment
Health providers in Washington State are continuing to order less vaccine than they did in the past, according to release from the Washington State Department of Health, following a trend that the CDC reports it is seeing nationwide.
“This could be for a variety of reasons, including the fact providers already have vaccine on hand, vaccine is coming into the state through other channels, such as the Federal Retail Pharmacy Program, and demand for vaccine has begun to slow down,” the release states.
The Department of Health also reported it is not currently expecting to received any Johnson & Johnson vaccine doses, “which is likely due to ongoing manufacturing issues.”
The state reported the three-week forecast for vaccine doses is:
▪ Week of May 16: 385,180 total doses, including 219,960 Pfizer doses and 165,220 Moderna doses.
▪ Week of May 23: 383,369 total doses, including 219,960 Pfizer doses and 163,400 Moderna doses.
▪ Week of May 30: 385,180 total doses, including 219,960 Pfizer doses and 165,220 Moderna doses.
Numbers elsewhere
New coronavirus cases and deaths according to Johns Hopkins University Thursday morning:
▪ The U.S. has more than 32.8 million reported cases, than 583,000 deaths and 264.2 million vaccine doses administered — all most of any nation.
▪ Worldwide, there are more than 160.5 million reported cases, 3.3 million deaths and 1.3 billion vaccine doses administered.
Washington state reported these numbers from the Department of Health Wednesday evening:
▪ 385,762 confirmed cases, up 833 from the last report.
▪ 32,258 probable cases, up 257 from the last report.
▪ 23,019 coronavirus-related hospitalizations, up 65 from the last report.
▪ 6,731,274 total molecular tests, up 15,153 from the last report.
▪ 5,614 deaths related to COVID-19, up 21 from the last report.
