Whatcom should stay in Phase 3 Monday, but future is hazy as county sees 34 new COVID cases
Whatcom County should be safe to stay in Phase 3 of Gov. Jay Inslee’s Healthy Washington — Roadmap to Recovery plan for three more weeks.
After that? Well . . . things are not necessarily looking so good.
The state is expected to evaluate county-by-county data on Monday, May 3, to determine which counties will remain in Phase 3 and which will have to roll back to the more-restrictive Phase 2 guidelines. Two criteria — rates of COVID-19 infections and hospitalizations rate — go into making that decision.
“Because the reporting period by which the state will evaluate forward or backward progression or staying put has already passed, unless something changes with the metric reporting, we do anticipate staying in Phase 3 upon evaluation on Monday for the next three weeks,” Whatcom County Health Department Director Erika Lautenbach said during an online briefing Thursday, April 29. “However our hospitalizations and our case rates are moving in the wrong direction, and we are concerned about our ability to maintain that Phase 3 status upon the next evaluation, unless we see that trend changing.”
Whatcom County saw 34 new confirmed COVID-19 cases reported Thursday on the Washington State Department of Health’s coronavirus dashboard. Additionally, Whatcom saw two more COVID-related hospitalizations, but no related deaths.
Overall, Whatcom County has seen 8,083 confirmed cases and 90 related deaths during the pandemic, according to state data. An additional 312 probable cases — up seven from the last report — have been reported in Whatcom County during the pandemic, resulting from positive antigen tests not confirmed by a molecular test.
Whatcom County’s daily average of newly reported cases the past seven days is 34.7, up from an average of 28.4 one week earlier (April 16-22).
To remain in Phase 3, Whatcom must make at least one of two goals set by the state on the next data evaluation date scheduled for Monday:
▪ The first goal is for the county to have fewer than 200 new cases per 100,000 residents in a two-week period. Whatcom’s infection rate was 184.2 from April 8-21, according to the latest update of the state’s Risk Assessment Dashboard on Thursday, meaning Whatcom is currently making the goal. But that rate rose by more than nine cases per 100,000 people from the 175.0 reported Wednesday, April 28. Whatcom County’s rate during the last evaluation period (March 20 to April 2) was 154.8.
▪ The second goal is for the county to have fewer than five new COVID-related hospitalizations per 100,000 residents per seven days. Whatcom had eight COVID-related hospitalizations (or 3.5 per 100,000 residents) from April 12-18 according to the state’s epidemiological curves. That means Whatcom is currently making the goal, according to data analysis by The Bellingham Herald. Whatcom County’s rate during the last evaluation period (March 24-30) was 1.3.
According to estimates by The Bellingham Herald based on the state’s epidemiological curves, Whatcom’s weekly hospitalization rate should rise as high as 7.9 per 100,000 residents in the next week and a half, meaning the county would fail the second criteria if that rate does not drop by the next evaluation date.
Whatcom County has had 372 hospitalizations reported during the pandemic. Those include 20 active hospitalizations Friday reported by St. Joseph hospital in Bellingham, which was down two from the last report.
County health officials say the recent increase in cases and hospitalizations cannot be pinpointed to any one event or setting.
“They are across a variety of settings and ages,” Whatcom County Health Department Communicable Disease and Epidemiology Manager Cindy Hollinsworth said during Thursday’s briefing. “We are certainly working with a large number of businesses who have had an employee at work during their infectious period. But it doesn’t necessarily seem to be linked to spread at the workplace, but it is from social contact that individuals are having and gatherings.
“So I think it just fits with all the requirements to keep your circle small. I know we’ve gotten some new guidance on masking requirements coming up, but it still doesn’t make it a free-for-all. We need to be cautious as we move forward and remember to stay home if you’re sick and get tested and all the other things that go along with our COVID habits.”
That is particularly important with Mother’s Day just over a week away and Memorial Day weekend on the horizon.
“Not to be a continued broken record, but our advice and guidance for Mother’s Day is the same as it was for Easter, for Super Bowl, Christmas and New Year’s, Thanksgiving, etc.,” Lautenbach said. “We are not out of the woods yet with vaccine. We are nowhere near that community immunity, and we need to continue engaging in behaviors that we know can help prevent the spread of the disease.”
The state estimates 42.90% of Whatcom County residents have initiated a COVID-19 vaccine and 29.74% of Whatcom County residents are fully vaccinated.
Numbers elsewhere
New coronavirus cases and deaths according to Johns Hopkins University Friday morning:
▪ The U.S. has more than 32.2 million reported cases, the most of any nation, and more than 575,00 deaths.
▪ Worldwide, there are more than 150.6 million reported cases and 3.1 million deaths.
Washington state reported these numbers from the Department of Health Thursday evening:
▪ 372,262 confirmed cases, up 1,401 from the last report.
▪ 29,456 probable cases, up 168 from the last report.
▪ 22,194 coronavirus-related hospitalizations, up 83 from the last report.
▪ 6,508,152 total molecular tests, up 20,799 from the last report.
▪ 5,487deaths related to COVID-19, up 13 from the last report.
