Will Whatcom County move to Phase 2 of the ‘Healthy Washington’ reopening plan Friday?
Though an official announcement isn’t expected until Friday, Feb. 12, it appears the North Region, which includes Whatcom County, will be headed to Phase 2 of Gov. Jay Inslee’s “Health Washington — Roadmap to Recovery” plan.
What that means is restaurants and indoor fitness centers would be allowed to open indoors at 25% capacity. In addition, sports competitions could resume with limited spectators, and wedding and funeral ceremonies can increase capacities.
Inslee announced the phased plan Jan. 5, tying business resumption in eight health system regions across the state to mathematical targets. Whatcom is tied to Skagit, San Juan and Island counties in the North Region.
The state originally planned to run analyses every Friday and allow regions that meet four key metrics to move up to Phase 2 the following Monday, but on Jan. 28, Inslee changed the plan saying regions only had to meet three of the four criteria, but evaluations would only be done every other Friday.
Two regions — the Puget Sound and West — met the criteria in three metrics and moved to Phase 2 on Feb. 1, while Whatcom and the rest of the North Region met only two criteria and had to wait until Friday for their next opportunity to make the cut.
With that date approaching, The Bellingham Herald crunched the numbers from the state epidemiological curves on the Washington State Department of Health’s COVID-19 dashboard, and the best estimates show the North will move to Phase 2. In fact, it may even receive a passing grade in all four metrics.
Whatcom County Health Department Director Erika Lautenbach echoed that sentiment when speaking before the Bellingham City Council Monday, Feb. 8, saying, “We appear as though we are well-positioned to move to Phase 2.”
Here is what The Herald’s data analysis shows:
Trend in case rates
Target: Regional COVID-19 infection rate (cases per 100,000 residents in the past two weeks) decreases by at least 10% from the previous analysis.
Last time: The North Region failed with an infection rate for Dec. 27-Jan. 9 that was 89% higher than the rate for Dec. 13-26.
This time: The Herald estimates the North Region will pass with an infection rate for Jan. 10-23 that is 13.4% lower than Dec. 27-Jan. 9.
Whatcom County will get some help from the rest of the region on this one, as its infection rate for Jan. 10-23 (400.0) is only 8.0% lower than it was for Dec. 27-Jan. 9 (434.9).
Fortunately, San Juan County’s rate dropped by 38.5% and Island’s by 35.8%. Even Skagit County saw a decrease of 17.2%.
Overall, the four counties had 1,367 new confirmed cases from Jan. 10-23, compared to 1,578 the previous two weeks, and the region’s infection rate (based on a combined population of 461,175 from the 2019 U.S. Census) was 296.4, down from 342.2.
Trend in COVID hospitalizations
Target: Regional COVID-related hospitalizations per 100,000 residents decreases by at least 10% from the previous analysis.
Last time: The North Region failed with a hospitalization rate for Jan. 3-16 that was 50% higher than the rate for Dec. 20-Jan. 2.
This time: The Herald estimates the North Region will pass with a hospitalization rate for Jan. 17-30 that is 30% lower than Jan. 3-16.
Whatcom County actually had a good showing in this metric, as its hospitalizations dropped 37.3% for Jan. 17-30 compared to the previous two weeks, going from 51 to 32.
San Juan County had a 100% drop from one to none, while Island County saw a 57.1% reduction. Skagit was the only county not making the mark, as its number of hospitalizations between Jan. 10 and 23 was unchanged from the previous two weeks.
Overall, the four counties had 56 hospitalizations during the two-week period, which is 12.1 per 100,000 residents. That’s an improvement from the 80 total hospitalizations and 17.3 rate from Dec. 20-Jan. 2.
COVID-related hospitalization data from the state is still incomplete for Jan. 22-30, so this data could change, but it’s unlikely that it will change enough to trip up the North.
Average ICU bed usage
Target: Average regional use of staffed adult ICU hospital beds over the most recent seven days is less than 90%.
Last time: The North Region passed with 60% ICU bed usage from Jan. 10-16.
This time: The Herald estimates the North Region will pass with approximately 68.4% ICU bed usage Jan. 24-30.
This one is a bit tricky, as the state does not publish individual county data on ICU bed usage. Instead, the state’s COVID-19 Risk Assessment dashboard releases regional data. But in that data, Snohomish County is considered part of the North Region (it’s part of the Puget Sound Region in the Health Washington metrics).
The dashboard also does not release data on weekends, so this is purely an estimate.
But, according to the risk assessment dashboard, the North (including Snohomish County) utilized 70.5% of its ICU beds between Jan. 10 and 14. Between Jan. 25 and 29, which should be the week the state analyzes, that rate dropped to 68.4%.
Average COVID test positivity
Target: Average regional number of molecular COVID-19 tests that return positive results during a seven-day period is less than 10%.
Last time: The North Region passed with 8% test positivity between Dec. 27 and Jan. 2.
This time: The Herald estimates the North Region will pass with 7.3% positivity from Jan. 10-16.
Whatcom County’s positivity rate actually climbed from 6.6% Dec. 27-Jan. 2 (367 positives in 5,584 tests) to 7.7% for the Jan. 10-16 analysis period (551 positive in 7,152 tests).
But the other three counties’ positivity rates helped push the regional number down. San Juan County bumped up only slightly from 2.5% to 2.6%, while Skagit dropped from 9.0% to 7.2% and Island from 9.4% to 5.3%.
Overall, the region had 946 positive results in 12,950 tests between Jan. 10 and 16.
This story was originally published February 11, 2021 at 9:23 AM.
