Some good news: Washington state’s third COVID-19 curve appears to be flattening
Washington state’s current and worst COVID-19 curve might be flattening and the dreaded post-Thanksgiving surge does not appear to be materializing, according to state Department of Health officials.
Still, the situation is tenuous despite the first doses of a vaccine for the coronavirus being administered this week in Washington, officials say. Relaxing preventive health safety protocols could re-charge the surge.
“We are starting to flatten the curve, which is really good news,” said Kathy Lofy, state health officer, during a media briefing on Wednesday.
New COVID-19 cases, based on the date when symptoms began, are leveling off following a sharp climb from late October. The current daily average is around 2,600. In early September, it bottomed out at around 360 cases per day.
Hospitalization admittances are also leveling off, at just over 100 per day. They bottomed out at just over 20 per day in early September. During the first wave in March, they topped out at around 80 per day.
Deaths are still increasing, according to confirmed data. Though current numbers have not surpassed the first wave in late March, deaths were still increasing in late November.
That’s expected, Lofy said. Significant data changes usually follow an order, she said: First to come in are test results followed by hospitalizations and then deaths. Deaths take the longest time to confirm because death by COVID-19 must be medically established.
As hospitals in other parts of the country report dire needs for more staffed acute care beds, Washington’s situation appears to have improved over the past week, Lofy said.
Last week, 25% of intensive care unit beds were occupied by confirmed and suspected cases of COVID-19. That number dropped to 21.6% Tuesday.
The trend is not equal across the state, Lofy said.
“Both in north central Washington and south central Washington, we are seeing a very dramatic increase in COVID-19 hospital bed occupancy,” she said. “And it does not appear to be slowing much.”
Prior to Thanksgiving, health officials cautioned the public against gathering with people who do not share the same household. Many predicted a post-Thanksgiving surge.
So far, it hasn’t materialized.
“To date, we have not detected a post Thanksgiving surge,” Lofy said.
Both Lofy, Health Secretary John Wiesman and others cautioned that the news means the public is heeding recommendations but that now is not the time to ease up.
Mask wearing, social distancing, hand washing and staying out of enclosed spaces with other people would need to be maintained for months to come, they said.
The hospital situation remains precarious, they said. Many have had to cancel elective surgeries to free up staff and space, Lofy said.
“If we were to have another surge in COVID-19 activity at our current level of disease, which is very high, it would result in more hospitalizations and deaths and would very likely overwhelm our hospitals,” Lofy said.
This story was originally published December 16, 2020 at 2:13 PM with the headline "Some good news: Washington state’s third COVID-19 curve appears to be flattening."
