State and county health officials urge people to stay home as COVID-19 surge accelerates
As a surge in confirmed COVID-19 cases and hospitalizations accelerated across the state, Washington state health officials struck an urgent tone Tuesday, asking residents to recommit to social distancing as the winter holiday season looms.
“We’re very concerned,” state Secretary of Health Dr. John Wiesman said near the end of a virtual media briefing Tuesday afternoon. “One just has to look at states across the United States to see how quickly this explodes. And, you know, a number of weeks ago, we were at 500 cases a day. Now we’re over what we were in the summer surge of 800-some cases a day. We’re over 1,000 cases a day.”
Officials, he said, are “raising the alarm bells for the public” and urging people to “take action today.”
The state has the highest number of cases it’s ever had, and incomplete data shows case counts have accelerated in the last two weeks, State Health Officer Dr. Kathy Lofy said at the briefing. And it’s not due to an increase in testing, it’s a “real increase in disease.”
Hospitalizations have been increasing in both Eastern and Western Washington, Lofy said. Case numbers are increasing across age groups, which indicates transmission is “very widespread in our communities” and that we’ll see more hospitalizations and deaths, since older age groups are affected.
The state’s latest situation report, released Tuesday, includes that the “effective reproductive number” — how many other people one COVID-19 patient will infect — was estimated at 1.29 in Western Washington on Oct. 24, and 1.36 in eastern Washington. The state’s goal is to keep that number “well below one,” which would mean transmission is declining.
Tuesday’s media briefing included state health officials alongside local health officers from King, Snohomish, and Pierce counties, physicians, and staff from the Governor’s Office. A common theme was concern for overwhelming health care systems and potential staffing shortages.
If the outlook doesn’t change, Lofy and others suggested additional public health measures will be necessary.
“We’re at the point that, if we cannot change the current trajectory of disease by changing our behaviors, we’ll need to take actions that will hurt our economy,” Lofy said. “And no one wants to do that again.”
Answering a reporter’s questions, Lofy said all options are on the table and didn’t offer a clear timeline of when such actions could be taken — emphasizing that they don’t want to take any actions and hope people will change their behavior by reducing social contacts.
David Postman, Gov. Jay Inslee’s Chief of Staff, called this the “beginning of a very concerted effort” to get people to “recalibrate” and take this seriously.
“There is a lot each person in the state can do to help protect themselves, protect their families, protect their communities,” Postman said in response to a reporter’s question. “And, frankly, that is so much better for everybody than trying to shut down the economy.”
‘Don’t attend gatherings. Period.’
Dr. John Lynch, an infectious diseases doctor based at Harborview Medical Center in Seattle, said that hospitals and health care workers have developed systems, policies, and processes in reaction to surges in disease this year, and have been preparing for a “fall surge.” Now that it’s here, he said a “call to action” is in order so healthcare capacity can be maintained and workers can be safe.
“We know what stops COVID-19 cases, we just need to actually do it in a widespread fashion, throughout our state, in order to blunt this curve,” Lynch said.
Going into the holiday season, experts advised that residents need to be diligent about familiar precautions such as wearing masks and maintaining at least 6 feet of distance from one another — and that they need to drastically cut back on socializing.
“Ideally, we should probably all stop socializing for the next several weeks” to try to slow the spread, Lofy said.
If people must socialize, Lofy said to limit social contacts to no more than five people outside their household per week and keep interactions as short as possible.
Snohomish County Health Officer Dr. Chris Spitters said he agreed with Lofy — that the safest bet is to just skip gatherings.
According to Spitters, Snohomish data shows a 50% increase in cases per 100,000 people between Oct. 1 and Nov. 7, and the test-positive rate there has more than doubled in the last month, to about 6%. Dr. Anthony Chen, Director of Health of Tacoma-Pierce County Health Department, said Pierce County’s 14-day total case rate per 100,000 people reported Tuesday was 12 times higher than its rate in June and four times what it was in September.
“Don’t attend gatherings. Period,” Spitters said.
A Thanksgiving without gatherings
When it comes to Thanksgiving, Deputy Secretary of Health for COVID-19 Response Lacy Fehrenbach offered some advice.
“The safest Thanksgiving is one celebrated only with the people in your immediate household,” she said.
If residents want to host a small gathering, she advised holding it outdoors, having no more than five people from outside their household, and seriously considering a “full quarantine for the two weeks prior” during which they only leave the house for essentials such as groceries or a quick walk.
When the holiday comes, she reiterated the advice to stay outside, stay 6 feet apart, and wear masks. She asked people to consider skipping the meal — where people sit at a table without masks — and do something different such as a “Thanksgiving stroll.”
“We know that folks are done with COVID and looking forward to the holidays, but COVID isn’t yet done with us and it doesn’t take holidays,” Fehrenbach said.
Some additional holiday-related advice came from Dr. Kira Mauseth, who’s part of the DOH Behavioral Health Strike Team. People are feeling exhausted and fatigued over the pandemic, she said, and it’s time to “dig deep.”
“When our brains get really tired on a neurological level, it makes it really difficult to make careful, rational decisions about safety and health,” Mauseth said.
People have a strong desire or a “need, on an emotional level” to have a fun holiday season, she said, and it’s tempting to downplay risks in an attempt at normalcy. We might find ourselves “not wanting to mask up” or say no to something we know isn’t safe.
“It’s exceptionally hard, but the diligence will pay off,” she said. “This is just one of those times.”
Also unique to this time of year is a likelihood of “a bit more substance use,” such as pouring an extra glass of wine at dinner, that can increase impulsivity.
Think carefully about decision making, Mauseth said, and make a plan that works for your family.
“We’re less likely to be safe if we make a plan ... at the last minute. We can still have that connection, we can still really have those great, joyful moments with people. But we need to do it safely.”
This story was originally published November 10, 2020 at 2:57 PM with the headline "State and county health officials urge people to stay home as COVID-19 surge accelerates."
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