Here are Whatcom County’s latest projections for the rate of COVID-19 infections
Officials at the agency managing local response to the new coronavirus pandemic have updated their projections for the rate that COVID-19 infections could spread in Whatcom County.
A report from Whatcom Unified Command dated April 21, 2020, describes a likely rise and fall of COVID-19 — the disease caused by the new coronavirus — in Whatcom County, along with an occasional return to business closures and social distancing measures that have been in force since March 24 under orders from Gov. Jay Inslee.
Inslee has extended those limits through May 31 and described a four-phase reopening of businesses and easing of social-distancing orders for public places.
“From these model simulations, we conclude that any significant relaxation in mandatory social distancing in early or mid-May will likely allow COVID-19 to start spreading again, leading to a second peak,” the report said. “New infections would reach a second maximum (many times larger than the first) that is likely to occur in late summer to early fall, depending on the selection of a hypothetical scenario.”
Whatcom Unified Command’s current epidemiological report examines three ways that the pace of local infections could evolve through the end of 2020, based on changes in the statewide business closures and social-distancing orders.
In the report, which is posted at its website, Whatcom Unified Command said its key findings are based on three possible outcomes of a computer scenario to predict how many local residents could become infected with COVID-19, how many would require hospital care, and how many would die.
“Through simulations of the observed drop in new cases and hospitalizations, we are confident that there was a significant decrease in COVID-19 transmission in late March, corresponding well with the date of the governor’s ‘stay-home, stay-healthy’ order,” the report said.
Those scenarios use variables such as social distancing and business closures, as well as Whatcom County Health Department efforts that include testing for infection, tracing the people who have been in close contact with infected people, and isolating those who have tested positive, according to the report.
On Tuesday, May 12, Inslee unveiled a plan for more widespread disease testing, in addition to isolation of infected people and comprehensive contact tracing.
All three epidemiological models assume that social distancing limits and business closures will start to ease in early to mid-May.
A third model also examines what would happen if there were strict public health initiatives, such as an order requiring everyone to wear face masks in public.
At a May 4 press conference, the Whatcom County Health Department said its contact tracing of infected people showed that small gatherings were partly to blame for a surge in cases the previous week as people grew weary of the stay-home orders.
Indeed, dozens of people participated in a parade of cars Saturday, May 9, in Lynden, for a relaxation of business closures and social-distancing measures, citing a lower rate of infection in Whatcom County.
And infection numbers appear to be rising further.
From May 3 to May 9, a total of 15 new COVID-19 cases were reported in Whatcom County, with five deaths.
Almost that many new cases — 13 — were reported over the past three days, from Sunday, May 10, to Tuesday, May 12.
“Given the extreme risks to public health in this scenario, we considered the likelihood that the current restrictive, mandatory policies would need to be reinstituted at some point before that second peak occurs,” the report said.
And the new report appears to show fewer serious infections, hospitalizations and deaths compared to models that were developed in March, as COVID-19 cases began to spread across Whatcom County.
Earlier scenarios estimated between 56 and 338 deaths in Whatcom County by an anticipated pandemic peak in August, depending on the success of social distancing.
But the two reports are difficult to compare because the newer model shows infections, hospitalizations and deaths on a graph from June to December 2020, without listing actual numbers.
In one scenario of the new model, deaths climb gradually to a peak of about 20 per day in August, and drop to one per day in late November.
