For every 10 people with coronavirus, eight others are infected, Whatcom model shows
The model used by Whatcom County to plan the local response to the COVID-19 pandemic shows that for roughly every 10 people who are confirmed to have the new coronavirus, they infect around eight others.
The simulation model, which shows that Whatcom County may have already passed its first peak of coronavirus infections, was discussed in detail by Whatcom County Health Department Director Erika Lautenbach during the Bellingham City Council meeting Monday evening.
Lautenbach said the model is updated every day with information from various communities across the world, and as more information is put into the model, the more complete picture it shows. Lautenbach said while the model is used to provide projections on what could happen with coronavirus trends in Whatcom County, it’s “much less precise” than a weather forecast.
Lautenbach said the number one is important when looking at the model. The number one means that for every one person who is infected, they infect one other person, she said. The goal is to get the number in the model below one.
Lautenbach said the current trend for Whatcom County shows that the number in the model is around 0.8, meaning that for every 10 people who test positive for the coronavirus, they infect eight other people. Lautenbach said if the number changes and rises to 1.2 or 1.6 or higher, “the picture changes in a very dramatic way.”
“This is important in terms of understanding the scope and magnitude of policy change and personal behavior on how this picture looks,” Lautenbach said.
Lautenbach also told the city council that occasionally when there are big jumps in the numbers of confirmed coronavirus cases the health department is reporting, they’re often associated with clustered cases, such as those at skilled or long-term nursing facilities. Lautenbach said the simulation model does not include the clusters, because the clustered numbers can skew the model’s projections due to Whatcom County’s population size, ability to test and the overall sample size of confirmed cases.
Lautenbach said while the health department recognizes the clusters are important, the model deals more with community spread, or cases for which the source of infection is unknown, and so the cluster data is not included.
Lautenbach said the model shows that even after Washington Gov. Jay Inslee’s “Stay Home, Stay Healthy” order ends on May 4, that the county has to be careful in how the restrictions on social distancing are dialed back.
“It’s going to be a constant calibration and I think the most important point is, given what we know and given the projections, we have to be very careful about how we reopen our county and how we allow people to move about and socialize. And I think we’re going to have to be careful for a lot of months. This is a long-term process,” Lautenbach said.
As of Tuesday, April 14, 265 people have been confirmed to have the new coronavirus in Whatcom County and 25 people who tested positive have died, according to the county health department.
