Without social distancing, report says Whatcom could have up to 4,200 coronavirus deaths
A Western Washington University administrator has used an online epidemic calculator to forecast how the new coronavirus might affect Whatcom County, and The Bellingham Herald has obtained a copy of that report.
Results of this computer modeling show that Whatcom County could see fewer than 100 deaths or as many as 4,200 from COVID-19 disease by July 1, 2020, depending on the outcome of several scenarios.
As many as 18,000 people could become sick enough to require hospitalization under a worst-case scenario with aggressive disease spread and without continued social distancing.
Possibly the biggest mitigating factor is continued self-isolation and social distancing required as part of statewide orders, according to the report by John “Jack” Herring, who has been dean of Fairhaven College since 2013.
Herring has a doctorate in atmospheric sciences from the University of Washington, according to the WWU website. He has conducted research on air pollution and has taught in the environmental studies program at Prescott College in Arizona.
In the report, Herring cautioned that his results should be considered an illustrating trend, rather than a prediction.
His report, titled “Modeling Possible Trajectories of the COVID-19 Epidemic in Whatcom County,” was submitted to officials at Whatcom Unified Command, the multigovernmental agency that’s directing local response to the new coronavirus pandemic.
In an email, Herring wrote The Herald that he couldn’t comment on his report and referred questions to unified command.
Unified command told The Herald in an email that it considered the advice of several researchers, including WWU professors, “to begin, review and analyze several models and tools to understand the impact of COVID-19 for our community.”
Herring’s report “represents one of many we are considering as we plan for community needs ahead,” said Lt. Claudia Murphy of the Bellingham Police Department, a spokesperson for unified command.
“To release the report without full context would be like a newsroom releasing all its raw sources before the article is written,” Murphy wrote in an email. “Data and materials such as this help inform our planning, but we are mindful that information is changing hour-to-hour and it would be irresponsible to publish information without context, and which becomes quickly outdated.”
Whatcom County Executive Satpal Sidhu wrote The Bellingham Herald in an email that he had seen the report but can’t validate its assumptions.
“Regardless, it does clearly illustrate the importance of social distancing and the other protocols we are asking the public to follow,” Sidhu wrote. “We owe it to all our neighbors, and especially to the people on the front lines — our health-care workers and first responders — to behave responsibly and following the Health Department’s guidelines. The more we all stay put, the more lives we can save and the sooner we can return to normal.”
The Whatcom County Health Department is the lead participant in unified command, which uses a management structure recommended by FEMA for handling large-scale natural disasters such as wildfires and earthquakes.
Several members of the Whatcom County Council have criticized the Health Department for refusing to share details about local pandemic response.
Herring ran four simulations through the computer model:
▪ Two assumptions for the rate of spread, including a “base case” matching Washington state data and a doubling time of about 4.9 days, and an “aggressive spread case,” with a doubling time of 3.7 days.
▪ Two levels of social distancing started and maintained from March 25 that reduce transmission by 50% and 67%.
▪ Two “do nothing” simulations that estimated conditions without social distancing, using both the 4.9-day and 3.7-day doubling time scenarios.
One such worst-case scenario estimates as many as 500 local hospital admissions daily for COVID-19 by May 1, with more than 2,800 patients requiring ICU care — a figure that would overwhelm health-care facilities. By July 1, almost all of Whatcom County’s 221,000 residents would have contracted the disease, with 4,219 deaths.
With continued social distancing and self-isolation, however, the 50% model shows 18 hospital admissions per day by May 1, with 54 patients requiring intensive care and 338 total deaths by July 1.
A 67% COVID-19 transmission rate, however, shows a manageable nine hospital admissions daily by May 1, with 27 patients requiring advanced care and 27 fatalities.
That model predicts that fewer than 3,000 Whatcom County residents will have contracted the disease and recovered by July 1.
“It seems reasonable that the banning of gatherings will play a significant role in slowing the spread, as it appears clusters of cases emerging after group events have been responsible for much of the spread of COVID-19, from South Korea to the Italian Alps to Skagit County,’ Herring wrote in his report.
“For some people, such as those in health care, front-line grocery workers, etc., reducing the risk of exposure to near zero is difficult. That means that the rest of us must do more to achieve the necessary collective result. Thus, if each citizen not in a front-line critical job is able to reduce their exposure due to close personal contacts by 90%, that will give us a little breathing room to achieve a relatively rapid reduction in the spread of the SARS-CoV-2 virus,” Herring wrote.
Herring will be discussing the new coronavirus pandemic with several other WWU professors and other experts in a panel discussion from 11:45 a.m. to 1:20 p.m. Wednesday, April 8.
It’s open to the public and will be conducted using the Zoom online meeting app, said WWU spokesman Paul Cocke.
For the Zoom link, contact Chris Rowell at rowellc2@wwu.edu.
