I found it interesting that Faith Birol, the incoming director of the International Energy Agency, concludes, on the basis of one year’s data, that “greenhouse gas emissions are decoupling from economic growth” (Bellingham Herald, March 14, 2015) but that the fact that CO2 levels have been “decoupled” from temperature changes for 18 years goes unnoticed and unmentioned. Even the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change has acknowledged, much to their embarrassment, that there has been an almost two-decade pause in mean global temperature increases and that the predicted increase in extreme weather events has not happened.
There is a truism in science that correlation does not necessarily imply causation. Causation may be present, the correlation may be due to a third factor, or the relationship may be due to chance. However, the converse is universally acknowledged to be true; absence of correlation may be taken to imply lack of a causal relationship. If A is unrelated to B in the statistical sense of that term, A cannot cause B. For 20 years, from 1978 through 1998, there was a correlation between increases in atmospheric CO2 and mean global temperature. This has been widely (almost universally, if the warmist claims of consensus are to be believed) taken as proof of a causal relationship. How long (18 years and counting) must a zero correlation be maintained before the warmists will give up and admit that theirs is a political, not a scientific, fight?
Robert M. Thorndike
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