I’ve had a bit of the economic blues of late, but listening to an economist on Friday made me feel surprisingly better.
Hart Hodges, director for the Center of Economic Business Research at Western Washington University, gave a presentation about the economy at the monthly Technology Alliance Group meeting. Hodges breezed through some local numbers, but then opened things up for a general conversation about the economy.
The reason I felt a bit better is that Hodges and other economists tend to look at the longer view and overall trends. In my job, I see more of what’s happening to the economy in the moment.
The economic news I’ve been seeing in the last couple of weeks hasn’t been encouraging, whether it’s the stock market, oil prices or even the newspaper industry.
Hodges pointed out several fundamentals that give him reason to think the local economy should outperform the national economy in 2008 and into 2009:
The weak U.S. dollar helps exports, and this state is a big player in shipping things out; home foreclosures in Whatcom County continue to be less severe than in much of the country; and the largest employers locally (government, refineries, manufacturing) happen to be in industries that haven’t been impacted as greatly by the U.S. economic slowdown.
More of the focus of Hodges’ presentation was the longer view, and something he’s been pondering is the labor market.
Whatcom County (and most other counties in Washington) are losing workers in their 30s.
Part of the reason is that the tail end of the baby boomer generation has moved out of that age group, but there also seems to be a trend toward thirtysomethings leaving the area to pursue their careers.
“I think the work force is becoming a seller’s market, and businesses will have to adapt,” said Hodges, noting that the worker shortage has been noticed locally in the high-tech industry, but is now being noticed more in other areas of the economy.
About 80 people were in attendance, and the discussion was about the challenge of finding qualified laborers, and how to attract them.
Many noted the expectation of workers in their 30s have changed; they don’t expect to be in a job, or career, for life. It’s a generation of people who are not tied to a company as they used to be.
Listening to a group of people looking toward the future was a good reminder for me about looking at the forest and the trees when it comes to business coverage.
There are some challenging things happening right now in the economy, but there are also many more good things happening in the economy, particularly on the local level.