Business - Dave Gallagher

POSTED: Sunday, May. 10, 2009

A closer look at the local real estate numbers

With the local home-buying season upon us, there's a lot of number-crunching taking place as everyone in the real estate industry tries to figure out what's happening in Whatcom County.

We've recently reported some of the basic numbers about county home sales and prices (to sum up: home sales and prices down, pending sales higher, compared to the same period last year) but there are other statistics worth a closer look:

Home affordability. Last week the Washington Center for Real Estate Research Center at Washington State University came out with its first-quarter Housing Market Snapshot, which showed people are better able to afford buying a home.

The affordability index measures the ability of a typical family to make payments on a median-priced resale home. An index score of 100 means there is a balance between the ability to pay and the cost. The lower the score is under 100, the less affordable housing is in the area. The index takes in several factors, including the median sale price and current mortgage interest rates.

The affordability index for the first quarter in Whatcom County was 109.6, up from 97.9 at the end of 2008. It's the first time Whatcom County rose above 100 since the housing boom hit this area. It's a similar trend across the state: Only San Juan and Wahkiakum counties had an index score below 100.

Underwater mortgages: The percentage of homeowners who owe more than the house is worth in Whatcom County is 12.3 percent, lower than the U.S. average is 21.9 percent, according to Zillow.com, an online real estate data company. Stockton, Calif., had an astounding 51.1 percent of owners who owe more on the mortgage than the value of their home.

According to Zillow's index, Whatcom County home prices are down 14.6 percent from its peak, which was the third quarter of 2006. Zillow estimates the home value of local homes last quarter is down 10.5 percent compared to the first quarter of 2008. The percentage of homes that lost value locally in the past 12 months is 71.1 percent.

Supply inventory: Even though new home construction has dramatically slowed down, inventory is still on the rise in Whatcom County. According to statistics from Gragg Miller of Coldwell Banker Miller-Arnason, this area had 14.3 months of supply inventory in the first quarter, up from 11.75 at the end of 2008. In the fourth quarter of 2006, when the market was hot, inventory was down to 5.5 months.

Bellingham neighborhood prices: Miller also broke down the average price per neighborhood in the first quarter. It ranged from Roosevelt ($199,000) to Edgemoor ($684,000). Nearly all of the other neighborhoods were in the $200,000-to-$350,000 average price range, except for Geneva ($530,000), Samish ($455,000) and South Hill ($440,000).