BELLINGHAM — In fall 2007, when Dan Pike was running against Dan McShane for the open mayoral seat, eastern and northern Bellingham liked Pike.
Not so much this time around. In the 2011 race, in which he ran for re-election against former Democratic state Rep. Kelli Linville, precincts in east and north Bellingham dropped their support for him, according to a new analysis of voting data.
That was especially true in the Silver Beach area at the north end of Lake Whatcom. In 2007, that area strongly supported Pike. This year, it abandoned him and strongly supported his opponent.
Linville is currently leading in the race with 51 percent of the vote, according to the Saturday, Nov. 12, ballot tally released by the Whatcom County Auditor’s Office.
The tally showed the gap between Pike and Linville had narrowed to 299 votes. Thousands of ballots remain to be counted.
In the absence of polling data, it’s impossible to know why voters in particular precincts cast their ballots the way they did. People speculate: “Why?” Did Pike’s outspoken opposition to coal trains garner him support in precincts near the waterfront? Was he perceived as too liberal for voters in northern and eastern Bellingham, historically the home to more center- and right-leaning voters?
The data showed many precincts shifted their support.
“He’s got a very different constituency, or coalition, this time around than four years ago, just kind of inferring from that geography,” said Todd Donovan, political science professor at Western Washington University.
Donovan said he expected to see more uniform changes in support for Pike, rather than increases and decreases by area. (Full disclosure: Donovan supported Pike and donated $150 to his campaign, state records show.)
In Bellingham, there are three groups of voters, Donovan said: Left, greeny Democrats; traditional Democrats; and independents and Republicans. The last third has been pivotal in past elections, he said.
Four years ago, a majority of voters might have considered McShane too far left, so they went with Pike, Donovan said.
This year, “Linville is maybe seen as not as liberal,” he said.
The flip side, he said, was the support Pike gained in south Bellingham, particularly in Fairhaven.
Following are some of the major reductions in support for Pike (2011 numbers are as of the Saturday, Nov. 12, ballot tally):
- Precinct 226 (Silver Beach area): 67 percent voted for Pike four years ago; 33 percent for him this year.
- Precinct 225 (Silver Beach area): 68 percent for Pike in 2007; 39 percent this year.
- Precinct 228 (Bloedel-Donovan Park side of lake): 64 percent for Pike in 2007; 43 percent this year.
- Precinct 227 (west side of Alabama Hill, south of Alabama Street): 64 percent for Pike in 2007; 40 percent this year.
- Precinct 224 (west side of Alabama Hill, north of Alabama Street): 61 percent for Pike in 2007; 40 percent this year.
- Precinct 201 (Cordata area): 62 percent for Pike in 2007; 43 percent this year.
Following are some of the areas with major increases in support for Pike:
- Precinct 241 (Fairhaven): 52 percent for Pike in 2007; 71 percent this year.
- Precinct 240 (Happy Valley area south of the western end of Bill McDonald Parkway): 55 percent in 2007; 73 percent this year.
- Precinct 242 (east of Fairhaven in Happy Valley): 51 percent for Pike in 2007; 66 percent this year.
- Precinct 231 (portion of Sehome south of Maple Street, east of State Street): 47 percent in 2007; 63 percent this year.
SEE MAPS, VOTES
Click on the link attached to this story to see a high resolution PDF of election results by precinct for the Bellingham mayor race.
To see the latest ballot counts on Whatcom County races, including the precinct-by-precinct counts and maps showing precincts, go to wei.secstate.wa.gov/whatcom.
