POSTED: Sunday, Feb. 28, 2010

March a key month for Whatcom County economic activity

With March nearly upon us, it's time to find out if our local economy is taking a step forward or still mired in the recession.

The first two months of the year are typically the slowest for the Whatcom County economy: Unemployment is usually at its highest while retail sales, agriculture activity, construction work and home sales are sluggish. It's the economic winter blahs, and it shows up consistently in the historic data.

The unemployment rate is one of the clearest indicators of the change that takes place in Whatcom County. In eight of the last 10 years, the unemployment rate went down between February and March, sometimes as much as seven-tenths of a percentage point. In 2003 the rate remained the same, but the one time unemployment actually rose was last year, by a full percentage point.

A year ago the public and private sectors in Whatcom County were slashing budgets and jobs in response to the financial meltdown, with the number of local people actively seeking work rising from about 6,000 in November 2008 to more than 9,500 in March 2009 before going down slightly in the summer.

These days, I get sense from business owners that the first two months seem more like the typical winter-blah period than the cutting back period seen last year. Many have even seen a bit of an uptick, thanks to the Winter Olympics and the relatively nice weather.

Many also seem to be on the fence about what's happening in the economy: It feels like the winter slowdown period, but many are waiting to see if activity starts picking up this spring before they are sure and possibly start ramping up.

It's still been a difficult experience in terms of business survival. So far in 2010 I've counted 15 business closures in Whatcom County, which is less than the first two months of 2009 (21 closures) and 2008 (17 closures). This year's closures have included some longtime local entities, such as Horizon Bank and Boondocks Boats & Motors. That may be a factor in the continued uncertainty.

Later this week, the state Employment Security Department plans to release its January unemployment rate estimates for Whatcom County. If it follows historic trends, the rate will be significantly higher than December's 8.3 percent. Later in March, the February numbers will be released and it might be even higher. That's to be expected. The key will be March - will the seasonal hiring take place?