POSTED: Thursday, Dec. 10, 2009

Market report: A year later, several economic indicators showing stability

One year later, the local economic data looks a bit closer to normal.

Last October the impact of the national financial meltdown was just starting to show up in the numbers. Consumers weren't spending, construction came to a halt, and job losses were mounting.

The problems continued to get worse in the first half of 2009, but many of the economic indicators, such as car and home sales, are now tracking close to last year, possibly indicating some stabilization.

Along with the numbers below, here is some other economic news from the past month worth noting:

Rankings: Last month The Milken Institute released its Best Performing Cities index, which uses a variety of indicators to measure the economic vibrancy of a metro area. In this year's index, Bellingham ranked 13th out of 124 small-city metro areas.

According to the report, Bellingham performed well compared to other metro areas in terms of five-year job growth and five-year wage growth, ranking in the top 20 in those categories. However, this area didn't do well in one-year job growth, showing a 2.6 percent decline between March 2008 and March 2009, ranking 70th out of the 124 metro areas.

Real Estate: Local home values dropped 5 percent in the third quarter compared to the same period in 2008, according to the Federal Housing Finance Agency's all-transactions house price index. While the depreciation was steeper than previous quarters this year, the Whatcom County price slide isn't as bad as other nearby communities: Seattle, Tacoma and Longview saw year-over-year drops of 10 percent or more.

Other significant business news last month: After disappearing for nearly two years, Grant's hamburgers and shakes are back and already tantalizing local residents. ... Horizon Bank fell into the "critically undercapitalized" category in the view of federal regulators, further restricting what the bank can do and putting its future in doubt. ... The Department of Labor & Industries announced a 7.6 percent average increase in workers' compensation insurance premiums for 2010. ... Giuseppe Mauro announced that he will be moving Giuseppe's Italian Restaurant on Cornwall Avenue into the Bellwether Gate Building A, which is now being constructed on Bellwether Way by Ebenal Special Projects Inc.

Quarterly retail sales

Q2 2009: $709 million

Q1 2009: $624.4 million

Q2 2008: $803.3 million

Quarterly change: Up 13.5 percent

Year-over-year change: Down 11.7 percent

Statewide: $25 billion, down 14 percent year over year

For three straight quarters Whatcom County has seen year-over-year declines of more than 10 percent in retail sales.

Bankruptcies

October 2009: 67

September 2009: 73

October 2008: 70

Monthly change: Down 8.2 percent

Year-over-year change: Down 4.3 percent

In the first 10 months of 2009 Whatcom County had 674 bankruptcy filings, which is already more than all of 2008.

Auto sales

October 2009: 227

September 2009: 316

October 2008: 215

Monthly change: Down 28.2 percent

Year-over-year change: Up 5.6 percent

While the cash-for-clunkers program officially ended in August, new car sales in Whatcom County continue to be significantly higher than earlier this year.

Residential sales

October 2009: 225

September 2009: 244

October 2008: 173

Monthly change: Down 7.8 percent

Year-over-year change: Up 30 percent

Whatcom County home and condominium sales saw a 30 percent jump year over year in October, possibly as home buyers took advantage of an $8,000 first-time homebuyer tax credit and because the numbers were so low in October 2008, when the financial meltdown was taking place.

Whatcom County building permits

October 2009: 86

September 2009: 81

October 2008: 95

Monthly change: Up 6.2 percent

Year-over-year change: Down 9.5 percent

Through October, Whatcom County issued 762 building permits this year, down 26 percent compared to the same period in 2008.

Foreclosures

Whatcom October 2009: 72

Whatcom September 2009: 124

Whatcom October 2008: 40

Monthly change: Down 41.9 percent

Year-over-year change: Up 80 percent

While Whatcom County and the nation’s monthly foreclosure filings saw a drop from September to October, the expectation from experts is they will remain at high levels in the coming months.

Median price of homes

October 2009: $250,900

September 2009: $236,450

October 2008: $260,000

Monthly change: Up 61.1 percent

Year-over-year change: Down 3.5 percent

Whatcom County’s median price for homes and condominiums in October was up significantly from September, suggesting more higher-end homes were selling in a normally quieter time of year.

New home listings

October 2009: 364

September 2009: 356

October 2008: 343

Monthly change: Up 2.2 percent

Year-over-year change: Up 6.1 percent

New home listings were up slightly at a time of year when there are usually fewer sellers, suggesting the market may see steady activity heading into the winter months.

Airport traffic

October 2009: 28,023

September 2009: 26,785

October 2008: 23,326

Monthly change: Up 4.6 percent

Year-over-year change: Up 20.1 percent

It continues to be a busy year for the Bellingham International Airport, with October being the fourth busiest month of the year.

Canadian dollar

Nov. 30, 2009: 95 cents

Oct. 31, 2009: 94 cents Nov. 30, 2008: 78 cents

With the U.S. dollar weakening this fall, the Canadian dollar remained strong in November, which could be good news for Whatcom County retailers hoping to lure Canadians during the holiday shopping season.

Canadian border crossings

October 2009: 931,462

September 2009: 1,013,378

October 2008: 822,234

Monthly change: Down 8.1 percent

Year-over-year change: Up 13.3 percent

The year-over-year rise in southbound border crossings at Blaine, Lynden, Sumas and Point Roberts this summer and fall coincides with a rise in the Canadian dollar earlier this year.

Bellingham building permit values

October 2009: $5.5 million

September 2009: $5.2 million

October 2008: $7.6 million

Monthly change: Up 5.8 percent

Year-over-year change: Down 27.6 percent

The drop in permit valuations in the past three months coincides with a significant slowdown in two areas: new commercial and commercial tenant improvement projects.

Construction jobs

October 2009: 6,500

September 2009: 6,600

October 2008: 8,100

Monthly change: Down 1.5 percent

Year-over-year change: Down 19.8 percent.

The Employment Security Department significantly lowered its estimate of construction jobs, showing a 19.8 percent decline year over year.

Unemployment

Whatcom October 2009: 7.4 percent

Whatcom September 2009 revised: 7.7 percent

Whatcom October 2008: 4.8 percent

State October 2009: 9.3 percent

Nation October 2009: 10.2 percent.

Whatcom County’s unemployment rate remains well below the state and national rates but well above 2008 levels.