Businesses ready for busy fall

DAVE GALLAGHER

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Labor Day weekend may be known as one last relaxing holiday for school children, but it is also the kick-off time of a busy period for businesses.

That's something I've noticed in covering business locally, and it makes sense: School is getting back in session, so many employees are returning from summer vacations. With everyone getting back in the office, business plans that were put off during the summer months now can be finalized. For many companies, it is also time to start budgeting for 2009, so key decisions about the future are being put into place.

The uptick in business happenings can be seen throughout the economy as well. Retail sales in Whatcom County tend to peak in the third or fourth quarters; the unemployment rate tends to hit its lowest level in October; a flurry of activity happens in construction as contractors try to finish things up before the winter rains arrive.

Here are a few other potential trends to keep in mind:

The presidential election factor. Some longtime retailers have noticed that during a big election season, particularly when it involves a new president, there will be a drop-off in shoppers up until the election. The ones I've talked to can't quite figure out why this happens, but the good thing for retailers is that the drop-off in sales is usually made up right after the election.

Vicki Rogers, owner of three retail stores in Bellingham, said she's seen election seasons where there was hardly anyone in the stores in the weeks prior to the election, but then the day after ballots are cast her store is busy again.

"It's strange, but always seems to happen that way," Rogers said.

Real estate assessment time. Families usually try not to buy and move into a new home in the coming months in order to avoid the disruption of changing schools. So what was a slow home selling season will continue to wind down. This will give the hundreds of Whatcom County real estate agents, particularly the new ones, a chance to assess whether they can weather this market. It's possible that there will be a contraction in the number of real estate agents, returning to pre-boom levels.

Agriculture shifts gears. With most of the berries harvested, the agriculture industry will now turn its attention to apples and other fall fruits and vegetables. Apples don't have nearly the same economic impact here as raspberries, but local farms will come out with plenty of varieties that are popular with local shoppers.

Where the economic factors are heading. Throughout the summer, local foreclosures and bankruptcy filings have been creeping up and are now hovering around the highest levels in years. The foreclosure rate is still below the state and national average, while bankruptcy filings are in line with other counties. But if they continue to rise or stay at this level in the fall, I think it will continue to be a drag on the local economy in 2009.

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Sunday, Aug. 31, 2008

Businesses ready for busy fall

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