News - Local News

POSTED: Wednesday, Oct. 01, 2008

Weather service predicts warmer, drier winter for Western Washington

SEATTLE - The Pacific Northwest may be in for a warmer winter than usual and could get less rainfall than last year, National Weather Service officials predicted Wednesday.

From November through January, the agency predicts there's a good chance the region will experience warmer temperatures than it has historically received in that time period, said Kirby Cook, an NWS regional science officer.

He also said that because last winter's La Nina - a cooling of water in the Pacific Ocean that produces wetter conditions here - ended in June, he expects this winter to be drier.

"We're likely to stay a little drier than we were last year," Cook said. "There's also a slight chance for above-normal temperatures in the Pacific Northwest."

After January, the weather is likely to return to normal, Cook said.

Since La Nina ended, the region's climate has effectively been in limbo because it hasn't entered into La Nina's counterpart, El Nino, which is a warming of the water in the Pacific Ocean that produces drier conditions here.

Cook also cautioned that neutral years tend to produce major floods more than La Nina and El Nino years, although last winter's flooding in the Chehalis River Basin was an exception.

To help warn Whatcom County residents, a flood gauge on the south fork of the Nooksack River will be moved in the next two months to the Saxon Bridge. It can provide more accurate data on the river's height and flow there to help predict major flooding, said Brent Bower, a NWS senior services hydrologist.

The neutral year makes predicting the winter difficult, he said, because the agency doesn't have as much data for neutral climate years as it does for La Nina or El Nino years.

"It's sort of hard to compare," Cook said. "We like to take advantage of El Nino and La Nina years because we have something we can hang our hat on. When we don't have that, it makes the forecast a little tough."