Hot races create buzz as primary nears

There are about a dozen hot races in swing districts that could alter the balance of power in Olympia. A batch of perhaps two dozen more might yield a couple races that reveal themselves to be more competitive than previously thought.

House Speaker Frank Chopp, D-Seattle, said he’s tracking about 20 races but that “some of that 20 will drop off.”

“The primary is the place where you take stock and say, ‘Are there any surprises there?’” said Senate Majority Leader Lisa Brown, D-Spokane.

Republican prospects are best in the Senate, where Democrats are taking a defensive posture and already are bracing for a tough 2010 election cycle. Top Republican targets are Sen. Marilyn Rasmussen, D-Eatonville, and Sen. Mary Margaret Haugen, DCamano Island.

Democrats are confident

they’ll keep the seats and hold out hope they’ll be able to unseat Sens. Mike Carrell, R-Lakewood, and Val Stevens, R-Arlington.

Four Republican seats and five Democratic seats have been targeted in the House. Republican targets include Democratic Reps. Don Barlow of Spokane, Liz Loomis of Snohomish and Roger Goodman of Kirkland, and they are angling to pick up open Democratic seats in the 41st and 26th districts in the Puget Sound region.

Democrats are going after seats held by Republican Reps. Jim Dunn of Vancouver, Spokane’s John Ahern, Federal Way’s Skip Priest and Whidbey Island’s Norma Smith.

Their majority status has put Democrats in a better position to help their candidates. More members mean more big donors who can surplus leftover campaign cash to the caucus campaign committee.

In long-shot races, Democrats have spent money to support races against House Minority Leader Richard DeBolt, RChehalis, and right-hand-man Doug Ericksen, R-Ferndale.

“They’ve got so much money they can afford to gamble money on seats they’re highly unlikely to win,” said Chris Vance, former chairman of the state Republican Party.

Reports filed with the state Public Disclosure Commission last week indicated that the House Democratic Campaign Committee, which carried over a whopping $580,000 from the last election cycle, had almost $270,000 on hand to House Republicans’ $43,000.

“It certainly doesn’t hurt,” said Rep. Sam Hunt, an Olympia Democrat and House Democratic Campaign Committee chairman. “Our incumbents have been very good about raising money.”

That disparity figures to grow larger in the days following Tuesday’s primary, when incumbent legislators on the ballot will dump tens of thousands of leftover primary dollars into their caucus coffers.

House Democratic incumbents had a combined $2.3 million in their campaign bank accounts last week while 31 House Republican incumbents had just over $1 million.

“We have to be more thoughtful in terms of how we spend it and more effective,” said Priest, who is co-chairman of the House Republican Organizational Committee. “That’s just the reality.”

The fundraising disparity is considerably smaller in the Senate. The Senate Democratic Campaign Committee had $96,000 on hand to the Senate Republican Campaign Committee’s $48,000.

Collectively, the 13 Democratic senators on this year’s ballot had almost $829,000 on hand to the 11 Republican senators’ $805,000.

“You’re at a very distinct disadvantage with the surplusing of funds,” said Senate Minority Leader Mike Hewitt, R-Walla Walla. “The person who has the majority has a huge advantage.”

Hewitt also finds big donors aren’t as eager to contribute as much when it doesn’t appear Republicans are close to claiming a majority any time soon.

“When you’re very close they split the dollars a bit more,” he said.