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Thursday, Jul. 03, 2008

Whatcom County population grows at reduced pace

Most arrivals choose to live outside cities

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Most of Whatcom County’s new residents are choosing to live in unincorporated areas, and fewer than one-fifth are choosing to live in Bellingham, according to new statistics.

Meanwhile, population growth countywide is slowing, and experts say it’s because slow housing markets in other areas are making it hard for people to sell homes and move here.

Over the last year, the county has seen a net population increase of 2,700 people, lower than it’s been for at least four years, according to state Office of Financial Management numbers released Wednesday. And nearly 60 percent of them are choosing to live in unincorporated areas.

Some people say the statistics indicate Bellingham isn’t allowing enough development within city limits, reducing home-buying options and driving up prices.

“I’ll chalk that one (up) to forcing people out into the rural areas,” said Sam Crawford, a County Council member and development consultant. “Maybe the land-use regulations that we’ve put into effect, such as not expanding the urban growth area of Bellingham, are starting to have some impact.”

Others say people coming from big cities want quiet country estates, and Whatcom County is giving it to them.

“If somebody’s bent on moving here and having a five-acre minifarm, are they going to look in the city for that? No,” said Bellingham City Council member Terry Bornemann, who heads the council’s planning committee. Bellingham has the space to accommodate a larger proportion of new residents, he said, but the county is making rural housing lots readily available.

“Some people are moving here from other areas and they want a rural lifestyle,” he said.

GROWTH SLOWING

The growth rate is slowing because depressed real estate markets elsewhere make it hard for people to sell their homes and buy better homes here, said W. Thomas Follis, a Bellinghambased appraiser/broker. The market here is still stable, he said.

“People from other areas need to be in an economic situation to move, and when you have a national slowdown you’re not going to see as much transplanting of people,” Crawford said.

That slowing growth is a good thing, several officials said.

“It’s good to see the overall population — the overall increase — slowing down a little bit, because obviously we’ve seen such growth pressures,” said Ken Mann, chairman of the county’s Planning Commission. The county’s growth reached as high as 2.1 percent from 2006-07. This year it’s grown 1.4 percent, the lowest in five years.

In Bellingham, it reached 2.4 percent in 2006-07. This year it’s grown only 0.7 percent, the lowest in six years.

UNINCORPORATED GROWTH

Less than 41 percent of the growth from last year occurred in cities. The remaining 59 percent includes growth in the urban growth areas of Birch Bay and Kendall and urban growth areas outside the limits of the county’s seven cities.

David Stalheim, director of the county’s planning department, suspects the county isn’t achieving some of its growth goals. The development pattern probably reflects consumer choices, with some moving to rural areas, he said.

That’s not uncommon in the less urbanized counties surrounding King County, said Doug Peters, a state Department of Community, Trade and Economic Development planner. People are leaving the dense cities and looking to counties like Whatcom County for rural living, he said.

Meanwhile, higher property values and fees imposed on development make some city homes unaffordable, he said. Lastly, there’s reluctance by developers to experiment with smaller homes — such as cottage houses or four-plexes — because they’ve always made money building “big-box houses,” he said.

High gas prices could change some of those trends, he said, because it costs more to drive into work in the city. Gas prices are averaging roughly $4.46 a gallon in Bellingham now, up $1.30 from a year ago, according to AAA.

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